Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Rix Pix 2008 - Super Tuesday: Seldon Crisis

Alas, more primary politics. Non-'Murricans, see my Euro backgrounder here. And apologies to all, but I am 'Murrican, and besides being a far more thrilling sport than professional football - even real football, played with a prolate ball - this stuff matters. It probably matters to you too, much as you wish it didn't, but I get to vote on it. I proudly cast mine for Hillary Clinton this morning, which I suppose constitutes my valued endorsement in this race.

GOP: McCain stands on the steps of Westminster Abbey. Ho hum.

Democrats: Hillary, and it won't be close. Say, a net 120 delegates, out of some 1700 chosen today. There, I said it, though I may be dining on my words by evening.

Obama was surging last week - an unfortunate term now, in the American lexicon. The polls have pretty much converged, except that the polls are chaotic. The pollsters are hapless, because Democrats are coming out of the woodwork to vote. What we know from the primaries so far is that they tend to break big at the end, one way or another. So I may as well predict with my heart as throw dice.

Expectation of a big break at the end is part of why I used the rather grandiose term Seldon Crisis. A Seldon Crisis is, among other things, a sudden break of continuity. The larger reason for using the term is that though half the country has yet to vote, I believe today will be decisive, even if I am wrong and it is close.

Obama is the storm surge, Hillary is the levee. If he tops over her, even by an inch, he will wash her away in the downstream states, those voting in later primaries. If however he comes up short, even by an inch, it will be high water for him, and his tide will go out as it came in.

Tomorrow I return you to your usual blog - that is a promise in writing. Oh, and here is the obligatory link to Atomic Rockets. (Winch, if you have been puzzling over a trickle of visitors from Daily Kos, it is because I link your site whenever I use the phrase rocket science, or suggest that someone ought to pay a visit Planet Earth.)


Anonymous said...

While I won't disagree with your analogy of the political proccess, I will disagree with your choice of candidate. I should have thought that you would be oppossed to the discreadited theory of socailism that Sen. Clinton seems so enarmoured of. Before you ask; no, I don't find most of the candidates appealing (Ron Paul, maybe more than most), but that may reflect my libertarian leanings. I feel the federal government is the problem and half to three quarters of it should be dispenced with. Of course, it wouldn't be such a big problem if we voters hadn't let it, so we voters need to reign it in. Whoever I vote for probably won't win; I haven't picked the winner in a presidential race since Reagan.
Ferrell Rosser

Anonymous said...

Congratulations on your call. I don't think Obama's tide is ebbing yet. The convention is going to be a cage match - pass the popcorn.

As for they who can not be named, I wish the joy of their selection.

Rick said...

Okay, let's see if anyone is actually reading this blog, because while I intend to keep my front page clean - under no circumstance will this become a political blog - but in this one comment thread we can have some fun.

Ferrell - thanks for the perfect excuse. :)

Because the role of the state is very germane to SF - a branch of Romance notably given to libertarian ideas. It is also something that came up a lot in original rocketpunk.

Case in point, RAH. His trajectory is interesting, because I will argue that if all you knew about Robert Heinlein was SPACE PATROL, you'd say he was a natural Hillary supporters. Quick, someone wire up his grave and feed it into the grid.

Rick said...

Anita - Congratulations? For blowing yet another one? My call wasn't just specifically wrong, it was based on a wrong underlying premise. I thought someone would blow it away yesterday. Putting my money on the mare was an easy choice, loyalty versus coin flip.

You're probably right about the tide. See the front page. I predicted now or never, even if by an inch either way, and Hillary got her inch, but the maneuver phase is over, and the lines will stretch from the Channel to the Alps.