Monday, April 18, 2011

Space Warfare XV: Further Reflections on Laserstars


Much of the comment thread on Part XIII of this series, The Human Factor, turned into a discussion of 'laserstars.' While a thread of 631 comments (so far) might seem to have given this particular debate the full Rasputin treatment, I am instead going to use it as a pretext for another front page post. (And an arguably wretched pun in the title.)

Laserstars, as the term has come to be used on this blog, are military spacecraft designed to carry and deploy a single powerful weapon laser installation of the maximum practical aperture and power. In their 'ideal' form they would be drones, robotic in the broad sense that includes remote control from a separate command ship (or ground station, etc.).

A couple of provisos are needed. In conceptualizing laserstars I chiefly have in mind classical-style lasers operating broadly in the optical band (IR through UV), whose beams are passed through telescope-style aiming and focusing optics. It is this telescope, more than the individual laser itself, that provides the distinctive feature of a 'laser cannon' - if the available power is more than a single laser can handle you could easily have an entire bank of lasers all firing through the same optical system.

If you have lasers zapping in the far UV or X-ray bands, the aiming optics become quite different. My impression is that the main telescope becomes long and narrow instead of short and wide. In either case, however, the optical system of a laserstar is implicitly too big, relative to the whole spacecraft, to be mounted in some equivalent of a turret. Instead it is 'keel-mounted,' and gross aim is achieved by pointing the entire spacecraft toward the target.

The general argument for all this is that the effective range of a laser is in linear proportion to the aperture of its optical system. Double the telescope aperture and you double the range at which the system can achieve a given spot size and zap intensity.

But a further proviso is that the largest practical laser installation and optical system are in fact large enough that you can only conveniently mount one aboard a spacecraft that is itself of practical size for war service. If it turned out that the most cost-effective size for the spacecraft, with its drive engine and power supply, could carry half a dozen of the 'largest practical' laser optical installations, that is how many it would carry.

Finally, a broader proviso is that a laserstar is not to be regarded as a 'space warship.' It is perhaps more nearly analogous to a railroad gun, deployed to a position where it can make use of its long range firepower while being supported by other spacecraft. In spite of the image at the top of this post, I don't see laserstars primarily engaging in combat in low orbit around a planet, but rather at the outer edge of a planet's strategic envelope, either defending it against attack from elsewhere or maintaining a blocked by cutting off communications with or relief from elsewhere.

In the comment thread previously linked, commenter Tony raised several serious issues with respect to the laserstar concept. These range from the technical to the meta, and I'll discuss what I see as the most critical objections in that order. (The expressions of these issues, however, are mine, not Tony's.)


Precision and the battlefield don't mix.
There is a lot of precedent for the general observation that pinpoint accuracy is hard to achieve amid the turmoil of combat. On the other hand, in the contemporary era precision-guided munitions have demonstrated capabilities that would have startled military observers of an earlier era. And laserstars are not a rock & roll weapon, which is why I wouldn't expect to see them in action in (relatively!) crowded planetary space. They are long range artillery for use against targets that must travel through deep space.

Monocultures are vulnerable.
This principle of ecology also applies to warfare: Dependence on one weapon generally makes you vulnerable to an enemy who can make use of several. A laserstar by itself is indeed dangerously inflexible. In its 'pure' form it would be deployed only in a constellation containing other spacecraft and weapon systems.

In other situations I would expect to see only partial application of the laserstar concept - for example, I suspect that multi-mission military spacecraft (broadly 'cruisers') would carry a single big keel-mounted laser mirror, for long range zapping power, while also carrying a few smaller mirrors, along with kinetics, for fighting in more chaotic environments.

And, of course, having said this, in any given setting it is plausible that things have worked out otherwise. Laserstars or their like may have no place in the order of battle, for perfectly credible reasons ranging from inability to combine extreme steadiness with extreme power levels, to a power-political environment in which the ability to zap things at 30,000 km has no military significance.

Space armadas have no place in the plausible midfuture anyway.
On this point I plead guilty; significant military operations beyond Earth orbital space are an inherently operatic concept, only to be expected when there are substantial human populations, strategic assets, and even polities scattered across space.

This point has a couple of sub-implications. Since we are somewhere beyond the plausible midfuture anyway, techlevels are presumably higher, especially propulsion performance and thus the ability to sling kinetics.

A subtler argument also stems from being beyond the 'plausible midfuture:' A civilization with colonies and space armadas has evidently solved the problem of sending large numbers of people into space - weakening the argument for automated spacecraft as against human crews.

The specific response to these points would be that higher techlevels presumably apply as well to lasers and automation. But really this aspect of the debate takes us into an issue broader than just laserstars, namely the balance of technology and the flavor of technology in space-operatic settings.

I used to have an SF paperback that featured, among other things, a reconditioned World War II heavy cruiser armed with smoothbore muzzle-loaders. This combination was justified by a post-apocalyptic setting, but in general we want our future technologies to have an internally consistent techlevel, or at any rate feel as if they do. What constitutes this internal balance is itself, of course, a matter of speculation.

Also, if you are a regular reader of this blog you probably have a bias toward 'realistic' space technology, in a sense that is as much aesthetic as strictly technical. Roughly, you want spaceships that are broadly recognizable as industrial products - at least descended from the plausible midfuture, even if that era has become the plausible mid-past.

I will deal further with this subject (but not necessarily laserstars) in upcoming posts.

Meanwhile, discuss.



Via Atomic Rockets, this Martin-Marietta concept for an orbital laser ABM platform gives the general impression of a laserstar, but is already notably retro - probably of 1980s vintage. We'll delicately ignore the visible-in-space beam.

410 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 400 of 410   Newer›   Newest»
Raymond said...

Tony:

"First of all, there is no "scientific method". Newton himself did not follow the cookbook obervation -> hypothesis -> test formula when dealing with gravitation. He just applied mathematical analysis to observable fact and derived laws with sufficient predictive power to be usefull. He never ventured a theory."

I'll quibble with this. The scientific method is primarily concerned with observations, predictions and subsequently-derived laws, yes. But theories aren't a fundamental part of the method. Theories are useful tools for guiding inquiry, but they aren't strictly required for it to be "science". Newton and Kepler are excellent examples of this - their hypotheses were about certain phenomena being predictable according to mathematics they derived. They were still hypothesizing.

And as far as gods go, a) see my previous comments in the religion thread, and b) gods of almost all mythologies have rules of their own, even the Abrahamic traditions (who generally kept their theorized limitations on God to moral laws instead of physical ones, but the point still applies). Even if the laws of our observed realm change, we can still examine the limitations of those who do the changing.

Oh, and c) I think your definition of "god" as "capable of changing and/or defying natural law" is somewhat narrow - the idea of a deity's definition as such is, historically, a relatively new theological construct. Certainly most gods in most cultures (from the Sumerians forward) were associated with particular phenomena in the observable world (or within ourselves, which counts despite the recursion).

Raymond said...

Milo:

The Warp has rejected your offerings. Blood for the Blood God.

Milo said...

Rayond:

"The Warp has rejected your offerings. Blood for the Blood God."

Okay. Would you mind sitting still for a moment? I need to go fetch my knife.

Raymond said...

Milo:

I'll give you a whole squad, if you want. Still got plenty of tanks. (In case you hadn't realized, I play Guard.)

jollyreaper said...

@ milo


I don't have an account of any sort. I'm posting "anonymously", using the Name/URL radio button. And I think Blogger has decided I'm a spammer and blacklisted my IP address.


Reg and the problem goes away. If not with google then open ID should help.

Anonymous said...

Ok, here's one...
(Man in a tattered lab coat)"Well Ladies and Gentlemen; We've determined through repeated observations over many years, that we can state the following with great certainty. During the week before the waining quarter moon, there is a 97.03% probability of the Great God Dick being in a heavy snit due to it being his wife's 'time-of-the-month'. So, if you are outside after dark duing this time and in a willow wood grove, there is a 99.8% chance of you being turned inside out. The probability of being turned inside out by Dick declines, acording to these charts, by both time and distance, from the place and time stated. And now, I'd like to thank High Priestess Yolanda for providing the importaint information about the Goddess Bertha, Dick's wife, as well as commiserate with her over her broken limbs. Now, refreshments are to your right, where you may ask questions of our research team...someone please wheel Her Grace Yolanda over to the sidebar..."

Ferrell

Tony said...

Raymond:

"I'll quibble with this. The scientific method is primarily concerned with observations, predictions and subsequently-derived laws, yes. But theories aren't a fundamental part of the method. Theories are useful tools for guiding inquiry, but they aren't strictly required for it to be 'science'."

I agree, but every account of science-as-method includes the "hypothesis" step.

"Newton and Kepler are excellent examples of this - their hypotheses were about certain phenomena being predictable according to mathematics they derived. They were still hypothesizing."

They didn't hypothesize that analysis of observational data would lead to laws. To them it was an accepted epistemological fact -- God had created a consistent and rational universe, and application of reason would lead to reliable knowledge about that universe.

"And as far as gods go, a) see my previous comments in the religion thread, and b) gods of almost all mythologies have rules of their own, even the Abrahamic traditions (who generally kept their theorized limitations on God to moral laws instead of physical ones, but the point still applies). Even if the laws of our observed realm change, we can still examine the limitations of those who do the changing."

Really? In all religous accounts that I'm aware of, things happen because it is a deity's will, not because there's a set of rules that deity has to follow. If the god wantes to change rules, guess what? Suck it up.

"Oh, and c) I think your definition of "god" as "capable of changing and/or defying natural law" is somewhat narrow - the idea of a deity's definition as such is, historically, a relatively new theological construct. Certainly most gods in most cultures (from the Sumerians forward) were associated with particular phenomena in the observable world (or within ourselves, which counts despite the recursion)."

A deity is by definition supernatural. A supernatural entity is not bound by natural laws. And the division of labor among polytheistic deities is just that -- a dvision of labor. Whatever facet of the natural world that a deity is responsible for will work in the way that deity wishes it to. Sometimes dieties are thought to have fought over jurisdiction, or the scope or effect of a change to the nature of the world, but it's still up to the whims of the deities how things go.

If anything, we owe science to Abrahamic monotheism, because that branch of the god philosophy introduced the idea that the Deity (notably singular) made the universe rational and understandable because universal truths have to be universal in both time and space. And a creator Deity needed universal truth for the progress of His program.

Milo said...

Jollyreaper:

"Reg and the problem goes away. If not with google then open ID should help."

I'm not particularly happy giving my personal information to a site that can't even get their spam filters working right. I'm even less happy registering with some third party only even tangentially related to the site I'm trying to access.



Tony:

"In all religous accounts that I'm aware of, things happen because it is a deity's will, not because there's a set of rules that deity has to follow."

Norse myth. Ragnarok. I'm sure Odin didn't just choose to die. You could say Surtr also counts as a god, but what makes his will win out?

Greek myth. Gods repeatedly getting overthrown by their children despite trying to prevent it. Even gods are bound by fate. (Actually, that applies to Ragnarok too.)

Aztec myth. The gods are mortally threatened by the blood they lose in their daily fights, and need human sacrifices to keep them going.

Pagan myth is rife with gods wanting to do something and being unable to, or succeeding at a task only through roundabout means taking advantage of rules that they did not themselves set.

Rick said...

Milo -

You know, I'm getting really tired of the spam filter making it hard for me to tell if my post even made it through.

I also get tired of going through the cell blocks letting out innocent comments! Seriously, the spam situation is frustrating, and I don't know what to do.

It may come down to either asking everyone to log on, or have a captcha thingy. Both are inconvenient for the user, but maybe less inconvenient than having your comments thrown in spam jail.

jollyreaper said...


If anything, we owe science to Abrahamic monotheism, because that branch of the god philosophy introduced the idea that the Deity (notably singular) made the universe rational and understandable because universal truths have to be universal in both time and space. And a creator Deity needed universal truth for the progress of His program.


They can still get things stupendously wrong.

In Chapter XVII, titled Refutation of their Belief in the Impossibility of a Departure from the Natural Course of Events, al-Ghazali argues against the perceived relationship between Causes and Effects. He presents the example of fire and cotton. If you put fire next to cotton, the cotton burns. Al-Ghazali argues the most our observations can assert is that there is a correlation between the fire and the burning of cotton, but not a causal relationship. [If that's confusing, look up the Correlation does not imply Causality fallacy] Instead, Al-Ghazali argues, the cause of the cotton burning is Allah. He is the agent of burning and he chooses to burn when fire is present. It is not because of the fire that things burn, it is Allah choosing to burn when the fire is present.

This is a high mucky-muck grand poobah philosopher of Islam, not just some nut living alone in a cave.

“We should always be prepared so as never to err to believe that what I see as white is black, if the hierarchic Church defines it thus.” St. Ignatius Loyola

And don't forget that the whole Flying Spaghetti Monster bit with the noodly appendage came about to directly mock the Creationist assertion that all fossils appearing to predate Creation 6,000 years ago are either the direct work of Satan himself to lead us astray or the Lord testing our faith.

Now, as to whether you believe God is a Dick or refute it, that's a matter of faith. :)

Milo said...

The most amusingly "mechanical" religion would have to be Tibetan Buddhism, which came up with the idea of prayer wheels. If reciting prayers directly is too tedious for you, you can just write them down and turn a crank to automate your prayers. (You have to hand-crank it, though. Officially, connecting it to an electric motor does work, but the good luck then goes to the people working at the power plant, rather than the person whose house the mechanism is in. Though I suppose if you have your own generator in your home, as many rural people do... And I wonder how batteries fit into that.)

jollyreaper said...


The most amusingly "mechanical" religion would have to be Tibetan Buddhism, which came up with the idea of prayer wheels. If reciting prayers directly is too tedious for you, you can just write them down and turn a crank to automate your prayers. (You have to hand-crank it, though. Officially, connecting it to an electric motor does work, but the good luck then goes to the people working at the power plant, rather than the person whose house the mechanism is in. Though I suppose if you have your own generator in your home, as many rural people do... And I wonder how batteries fit into that.)


I'll do you one better than that. *evil grin*

http://downlode.org/Etext/nine_billion_names_of_god.html

This short story tells of a Tibetan lamasery whose monks seek to list all of the names of God, since they believe the Universe was created in order to note all the names of God and once this naming is completed, God will bring the Universe to an end. Three centuries ago, the monks created an alphabet in which, they calculated, they could encode all the possible names of God, numbering about nine billion and each having no more than nine characters, in their alphabet. Writing the names out by hand, as they had been doing, even after eliminating various nonsense combinations, would take another fifteen thousand years; the monks wish to use modern technology in order to finish this task more quickly.

It's short and BRILLIANT.

ElAntonius said...

Le sigh, I wrote up a nice long post and "Error Performing your Request".

Ugh.

Ferrell, I really like your post, illustrates what I'm getting at. There's plenty of scientific study that in no way guarantees outcomes, but does seek to work with statistics.

KraKon said...

"Micro-or milliarcseconds? I'm looking at Wikipedia, and it says an 8-10 meter telescope can achieve an angular resolution of 30-60 millarcseconds."

Yeah, I took mas for microarcseconds instead of milliarcseconds. My fault.

"50 milliarcseconds corresponds to 1 meter at 4125 km, or 30 cm at 1237 km. (If I'm doing this right!)"
I got the same numbers.

"Example: At 12,000 km your spot size will be 3 meters, and about 1 percent of beam energy actually hits the target. But if total beam energy is 100 MW, you're still putting a megawatt of energy onto the target, or about 1400 watts/cm2.

Note that this intensity yields a blackbody temperature of about 3500-4000 K - just hot enough to melt tungsten or sublimate graphite. Consult Luke's laser sims for how fast you'll burn through, and possible advantage from a pulse laser."

In other words, your maximal targeting distance is actually your spot size. Which means a 100nm UV laser can see anything bigger than its spot size, or 30cm at 25000km. But then, does the 50 milliarcseconds refer to the spot size of the telescope at X range (50mas fits with a near-infrared telescope), or is it the cone within which the platform can hold the beam inside? In the first case, our targeting becomes diffraction limited, with Stupendous Range Pinpointing, meaning incoming missiles while feel the ehat the moment they leave the launching platform (a full 25 minutes of enemy fire then), in the second case, spot size might be smaller than the target but platform jitter, vibrations and mechanical limits make the beam wander randomly within a cone that defines your 'accuracy'. 50mas becomes the upper limit of the targeting capability of the platform, so while your spot might be say 1cm wide at 10000km, you can only keep it within a 1m diameter cone at 1000km.
Luke's calc tells me a continuous laser does 85.6 micrometers/second against nanotubes/fullerite.
Pulsing is supposed to be useless if the spot size is larger than crater size.
BUT
With a 4GW, 100nm wavelength laser, it can be pulsed to do 500m/s against nanotubes/fullerite, effectively rendering any form of kinetics useless (except if we sent a LTAWS wave of 37.5 million LTMs, each with 2cm thick armor. None survive).

"Or at least impressive zaps."
Invisible beams of death are boring. Invisible BALs making the target VAPORIZE into glowing plasma is funner.

"The problem is that realistic military interfaces are designed not for coolness and flair, but rather for clarity and lack of distraction. Soldiers only put up with cool and flashy explosions all around them when they have no choice."

Coolness and flair are not needed for fun and interesting. Consider flight simulation games. Realistic displays, but you can still find fun in them. I see the display as a dark room, modelling your detection sphere. 'You' is an invisible observer, with your head in the center. You can drag the sphere around (spin it along axis) and spread hands or closen them for zoom/dezoom features (I'm assuming a VR heaset with interactive gloves here for your flesh bag crew). Targets would be red dots. Around them is green writing and numbers. Rapidly changing stuff will blink. If you zoom out relative to a target, tabs are not clustered together and overlapped, most important information is kept and the rest turned into visual stuff (vectors and threat cones, wakes) rather than hard-to-read-at-a-glance stuff like defiling numbers. Zoom and information gets more detailed, with projected dV reserves, maneouvering thruster cones, wakes, better developped predictions on what it will or can do...
For a movie, pumping music and whip-pans can make anything seem cool.

Milo said...

Jollyreaper:

"I'll do you one better than that. *evil grin*"

Yes, but the difference is I was talking about a real-world religion.

jollyreaper said...


Le sigh, I wrote up a nice long post and "Error Performing your Request".

Ugh.


1. Always select all and copy your post before you post.

2. Use chrome. IE will lose your form submission every time. IE's only purpose is served by using it to download a better browser.

ElAntonius said...

I used to use Chrome, now it's Firefox 4 for me. I always seem to lose my first post of the day though, regardless of browser :(

Rick said...

KraKon -

spot size might be smaller than the target but platform jitter, vibrations and mechanical limits make the beam wander randomly within a cone that defines your 'accuracy'.

That is the issue Tony raised about uber-range lasers. We don't have the answer, because we are so early in the development of weapon-grade lasers that we don't know how high power throughput complicates the life of observatory-grade telescopes.

Here's one way to look at effective range. For a given laser power, there is some maximum spot size at which the laser is dumping in just enough heat to gradually burn through armor. If the beam wanders you can either deliberately defocus it to the point where the spot size is equal to your 'accuracy cone.'

Or, you can let it wander, but recognize that most of the time it will miss the target, but it will still burn away a bit of armor whenever it wanders over the target.

To me the key point is that you don't have to burn through the armor very fast, if you can keep it up for a long time. 85.6 micrometers/s = 0.51 cm/minute, so a few minutes' zapping will burn through some pretty serious armor.

Thucydides said...

We can also expect that once the laser actually makes contact with the target, the plume of burnt material will exert a random thrust on the target. Small KKV's will either tumble, go off target vector or have to expend fuel to get back on track. Further contact with the beam will result in more of the same, the KKV might not have to be burned through to become ineffective.

Even lesser power levels will blind any on board sensors, and if the weapon depends on command guidance from the launcher, we now know what should be targeted right away...

KraKon said...

"That is the issue Tony raised about uber-range lasers. We don't have the answer, because we are so early in the development of weapon-grade lasers that we don't know how high power throughput complicates the life of observatory-grade telescopes."

In other words, I can come up with just about any single number I want to define hit ratios, as long as it lowers over the course of the battle or damage taken by the platform.

"If the beam wanders you can either deliberately defocus it to the point where the spot size is equal to your 'accuracy cone.' "

You don't really want to defocus the beam. If you do so, you will not be able to pulse-drill, as spot size would be bigger than the crater. You are now stuck with CW blasting. But the missile is DESIGNED to counter this stuff. Its external shell spins at 1500m/s, with an inner shell spinning at 500m/s in the opposite direction. This halves the penetration rate if the spot size is bigger than the whole missile (0.25cm per minute means it takes 10 minutes to reduce a single missile to vapour. Total flight time is 25 minutes for the whole wave). As you get closer, the spot size is smaller, meaning the factor happily increases to the thousands (it is around x4600 less penetration rate against a 1.2cm spot).

"To me the key point is that you don't have to burn through the armor very fast, if you can keep it up for a long time. 85.6 micrometers/s = 0.51 cm/minute, so a few minutes' zapping will burn through some pretty serious armor."

Sure.
Each missile has 2.5cm of armor just to survive a single pulse. It then relies in spinning and inaccuracies to survive several pulses, making sure they don't overlap and go though.
At 0.51cm/s, it takes the opponent 2.5/(0.51*18): 16.33 seconds to go through a single missile. 25 minutes flight time means a mere 92 missiles are needed for a hit.
This doesn't take into account increased penetration as range decreases, but I think a wave of 630 missiles is certainly enough. CW beam defense is not the way to go.

"Small KKV's will either tumble, go off target vector or have to expend fuel to get back on track. Further contact with the beam will result in more of the same, the KKV might not have to be burned through to become ineffective."

Taking the LTAWS, we have missiles that have 12km/s of dV left over AFTER accelerating. Burning fuel to get back on track is not a major concern, I mean, just how much dV does a laser stike impart?

"Even lesser power levels will blind any on board sensors, and if the weapon depends on command guidance from the launcher, we now know what should be targeted right away..."

External guidance is the way to go, especially at shorter ranges where LTAWS is used. Flashlighting the launcher ship will be of concern, of course. But I've already established that the launcher ship cannot be targeted by focused beams due to inaccuracies-50mas means maximal targeting range for the ship (head on) is around 8500km; It is 10000km out. What we're left with is blanketing the area with blinding lasers, and hoping their lowered intensity is still effective.

Tony said...

KraKon:

"External guidance is the way to go, especially at shorter ranges where LTAWS is used. Flashlighting the launcher ship will be of concern, of course. But I've already established that the launcher ship cannot be targeted by focused beams due to inaccuracies-50mas means maximal targeting range for the ship (head on) is around 8500km; It is 10000km out. What we're left with is blanketing the area with blinding lasers, and hoping their lowered intensity is still effective."

Laser blinding won't affect radar guidance. And a missile or maneuverable projectile programmed to home on heat will probably have very robust sensors, so that they can use enemy weapon emissions for targeting.

Anonymous said...

Tony said:"Laser blinding won't affect radar guidance. And a missile or maneuverable projectile programmed to home on heat will probably have very robust sensors, so that they can use enemy weapon emissions for targeting."

True, but a 1 cm, 100 Kw spot wandering over a radar antenna can't be good. Pulsed lasers for PD/anti-kinetics and CW for anti-ship sounds right.

Ferrell

Tony said...

Ferrell:

"True, but a 1 cm, 100 Kw spot wandering over a radar antenna can't be good. Pulsed lasers for PD/anti-kinetics and CW for anti-ship sounds right."

But laser blinding uses a non-destructive (to gross physical structures, which is what a radar antenna is) spotlighting method, not a closely focused destructive spot. The point is overloading sensitive instruments, not damage to target structure.

Anonymous said...

Tony, true, but heating an antenna(even if it dosen't melt it) will degrade it's performance by changing is electrical charateristics; a maser at or near the frequency of that radar will blind it, without having to physically damage it.

Ferrell

KraKon said...

"But laser blinding uses a non-destructive (to gross physical structures, which is what a radar antenna is) spotlighting method, not a closely focused destructive spot. The point is overloading sensitive instruments, not damage to target structure."

It could also work by overheating them. Sensors are quite heat-sensitive, and while the armor encasing them might survive a very long time at 4000K, a small cheap sensor probably won't.

I haven't given thoughts to the missile's onboard sensors, other than the accelstar 'deals with targeting', but now that I have, I think the best option would be for the accelstar to paint the target in radar. The missile then catches on to the radar pulses with a preset frequency only (less confusion) and moves closer to the source (based on intensity). This is a balance between a robust sensor (armored radar recievers) and cheapness (the accelstar does all the fine work, so no expensive onboard equipment to deal with 15m targets at 10000km).

Radar is also directional from the source, but omnidirectional once it hits the target, so missiles can latch onto the signal from further away. Instructions could be sent by pulsing the signal into a kind of morse code, making the missiles execute preset maneouvers.
Finally, it justifies cool-looking reflective surfaces and radar absorbant coatings for the accelstars. It may not stop them from being detected on IR, but will render end-phase targeting for the missiles a slightly more complicated affair.

Edouard said...

"Also, if you are a regular reader of this blog you probably have a bias toward 'realistic' space technology, in a sense that is as much aesthetic as strictly technical. Roughly, you want spaceships that are broadly recognizable as industrial products - at least descended from the plausible midfuture, even if that era has become the plausible mid-past."

I have to question that last statement. I think that with the undeniable advancement of supercomputers, by the time we start to become capable of sizable interplanetary spacecrafts (the plausible midfuture as you call it) we will have achieved a mastery over gene-engineering.

Why this is significant is because I think it would mean we could introduce bioships that are in a sense "grown", and still keep it all hard SF.

Rick said...

Its external shell spins at 1500m/s, with an inner shell spinning at 500m/s in the opposite direction.

That's going to involve some interest engineering complications for target seekers that are supposed to be fairly cheap. And the spin is also going to complicate the deflection burns needed to course correct and counter any target evasion.

Remember that while the target's main drive is probably milligee range, 10 milligees sustained for a minute will scoot a ship 180 meters. Also, a warcraft probably has powerful OMS thrusters, providing for a quick lateral kick in the tens of meters per second.

Rick said...

Welcome to a new (I think!) commenter!

Why this is significant is because I think it would mean we could introduce bioships that are in a sense "grown", and still keep it all hard SF.

This gets into interesting subjectivity. Biologically 'grown' spacecraft don't feel like hard SF (at least to me), even though there are plausible assumption sets that produce them.

KraKon said...

""Why this is significant is because I think it would mean we could introduce bioships that are in a sense "grown", and still keep it all hard SF."

If you say ships are grown, have cells and use chitin are armor, your story is WAY too soft. If you say your ships are 'grown' and that the biological part puts immensely more durable mechanical parts into place with finer precision, that's still hardish sf.

"That's going to involve some interest engineering complications for target seekers that are supposed to be fairly cheap. And the spin is also going to complicate the deflection burns needed to course correct and counter any target evasion."

I did mention that the spinning stuff was shells, meaning the thrusters and sensors are on an immobile frame, covered by thin armor cylinders spinning very quickly. The inner one weighs more but spins slower, balancing the external shell's torque. For even better stability, the armor and the frame are on ball bearings.

"Remember that while the target's main drive is probably milligee range, 10 milligees sustained for a minute will scoot a ship 180 meters. Also, a warcraft probably has powerful OMS thrusters, providing for a quick lateral kick in the tens of meters per second."

Err...yeah.
When I speak of LTMs, they're mostly in kinda MY setting, where the target ship is expected to push out 0.3 to 0.5g at maximal thrust. Over 25 minutes (launch to hit time), they'll move laterally by more than 340km. It is a good thing TLMs have a dV of 92km/s.
My problem was finding OMS thrusters to put on the missile. They'd have to survive quite a bit of heating, need no electrical energy and support several hundred gees. Nothing I know of has all three characteristics. Of the most durable, I have arcjets and chemical microthrusters, too bad arcjets means an onboard electric generator on each missile, and chemthrusters are made to explode all to easily by 4MJ pulsed lasers, even if under enough armor (just the residual heat...).

Milo said...

I think biological tissue is extremely poor at dealing with the engineering challenges of space. Now, if you have non-organic nanotechnology, then you might be able to produce a spaceship with that. I like Jollyreaper's approach.

Just remember that "nanotechnology" does not equal "can magically rearrange everything inside the ship in the blink of an eye".

Edouard said...

@ Krakon

I'll agree it's possible there are fundamental obstacles in manipulating genes to that level of precision. But I strongly suspect that computers will, some time in this century, become so powerful that they will be able to do things we can scarcely imagine right now. Such as mapping out the genes (along with their functions) of every known life form to a startling degree of accuracy.

But that's what the future is, a huge collection of variables that we can only guess at. We might develop diamonoid armor, technorganic membranes that can heal themselves. Or... we may never find anything better than good old steel and titanium composites.

I just meant that I think it's possible for future spacecrafts to move beyond our "broadly recognizable industrial products descended from the plausible midfuture", while still being hard. I think crystals and technorganic membranes and fluid armor, and other such unusual concepts could all be "realistic".

Rick said...

For even better stability, the armor and the frame are on ball bearings.

Well, those are a familiar tech! But at 60,000 rpm there will probably be some significant heat load.

Some other aspects of the tech seem to require an array of oscillating hands. Which, if attached to the laser, might also improve its performance. :-)

Milo said...

Edouard:

"I'll agree it's possible there are fundamental obstacles in manipulating genes to that level of precision."

I expect the difficulty will be in figuring out which DNA sequences code for useful things (particularly complicated useful things), not how to physically synthesize a DNA molecule that you already have described in a computer file.


"But I strongly suspect that computers will, some time in this century, become so powerful that they will be able to do things we can scarcely imagine right now. Such as mapping out the genes (along with their functions) of every known life form to a startling degree of accuracy."

That sounds like an AI-complete task to me. Computers will almost certainly help, but barring strong AI, some human interpretation will be required. No computer is going to be able to simply look at a turtle and realize that the thing on its back is a defensive structure.



Rick:

"But at 60,000 rpm there will probably be some significant heat load."

What about using magnetic bearings instead?

Anonymous said...

Edouard said:"I just meant that I think it's possible for future spacecrafts to move beyond our "broadly recognizable industrial products descended from the plausible midfuture", while still being hard. I think crystals and technorganic membranes and fluid armor, and other such unusual concepts could all be "realistic"."

I just recently read an articl about a 3d carbon-fiber spinning machine that Lexis (the car manufacturer) invented to weave parts for one of its new sports cars. I'm sure the technology can be adapted for other purposes...

Ferrell

Edouard said...

Welcome to a new (I think!) commenter!

If you mean me, yeah I'd like to start taking a more active part in the debating, if I can find the time. I've been following a few blog posts here and I've browsed places like Atomic Rockets for a while.

To be honest I'm mainly doing this to get more realism out of my short-stories and the RPs I do with my friends. It's not enough to just be realistic though, I want it to be realistic AND interesting.

Also, can someone point me to the original post that explains the term "Meta". I think it has been explained long ago enough that it's defnition is a given, but I missed it.

Anonymous said...

Edouard said:"Also, can someone point me to the original post that explains the term "Meta". I think it has been explained long ago enough that it's defnition is a given, but I missed it."

Try the post titled "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum" and the term Meta, as we use it, means the workings and framework of the stories; what makes for a good story, what makes a bad story, what we like and dislike in a story, what we think is most importaint to the readers; I could go on, but we have several dozen comments about the subject.
I hope that helps you.

Ferrell

KraKon said...

"Well, those are a familiar tech! But at 60,000 rpm there will probably be some significant heat load.

Some other aspects of the tech seem to require an array of oscillating hands. Which, if attached to the laser, might also improve its performance. :-) "

For 1500m/s rotation on a 30cm wide cylinder, it is actually 95000rpm...close. A quick wiki search tells me 140000rpm has been achive for yard spinners back in 1963-open end spinning. I'm not going far away or anything here...

For the LTAWS to be viable, we need the following handwaves:
-4GW 100nm lasers and all associated
-1m+ thick armor at target, spinning rapidly
-50mas laser accuracy
-Removing 2GW of pulsed heat-let's hope most of it goes into the exhaust and it never touches the walls
-Easy production of carbon nanotubes-for target armor and impactor
-A 3kg 8-telsa superconducting magnet that keeps its magnetic properties despite 1kHz 4MJ pulsed drive on one side and crater shockwaves on the other from laser PD
-Thrusters able to survive taking a ride on the missile and work under 100g+, high heat loads
-Sensors able to detect faint radio waves under 100g+ and high heat loads

I don't think there's much more handwaving to it than that. Certainly much less than an MFT or physics-bending FTL...

No magnetic bearings because the missile is supposed to be as cheap and strong as possible.

Rick said...

I'd imagine it isn't actually the rpm as such that matters to ball bearings, but the velocity, and 1 km/s is beaucoup.

And how the target seeker performs deflect maneuvers with that sort of torque ...

But possibly I'm just biased regarding armor for spacecraft!


'Meta' in the general sense means 'beyond' - a step out from the frame of reference. For example, the statement that a tech needs to sound plausible to the reader is a meta statement about future techs in stories, etc.

Whether or not the process is bio, I can somewhat imagine that you might want to 'grow' structures made out of Super Nano Carbon Stuff [TM].

Thucydides said...

The effects of a hard "whack" by a laser or interceptor KKV on Krakon's missile would probably be the bearings seize and the missile is turned into confetti..

Since (as I understand the description) the main impulse is through laser thermal propulsion, the act of upsetting the missile would be to throw the laser target in the back of the missile out of alignment, upsetting and reducing the thrust and thus the ability of the missile to take countermeasures or move back onto an attack vector. Even with a cooperative target the laser launcher will be working hard to maintain a tightly focused spot on a rapidly moving (and very small) power target.

The laserstars which are presumably the targets of Krakon's missiles are part of a constellation so missiles and the launcher will be cooperatively targeted by multiple laser weapons, KKV's and any other weapons technology that is available in the implausible midfuture. Of course the launcher is also part of a constellation (?) so the act of targetting the launcher should also be interesting.

Tony said...

Rick:

"And the spin is also going to complicate the deflection burns needed to course correct and counter any target evasion."

Not really. It's actually a fairly common means of maintaining spacecraft stability. With a spinning spacecraft, you only need one attitude thruster for X and Y axis translation maneuvers. YOu just wait until the thruster rotates around to the right point and thrust. A series of thrusts at the saim point gains you more translation. Alternatively, you can have a number of thrusters arrayed around the circumference of the craft and use whatever thruster happens to be at the right point when a maneuver needs to be made. This is how the M47 Dragon antitank missile worked.

Tony said...

Rick:

"'Meta' in the general sense means 'beyond' - a step out from the frame of reference. For example, the statement that a tech needs to sound plausible to the reader is a meta statement about future techs in stories, etc."

In information technology, we use "meta' to mean "about". Thus metadata is data about the data. Taking an example from online yellow page directories that I have worked on. The listings -- name, phone, address, and advertisements -- are data. So are the categories. Metadata would be what corresponding print book can the data be found in, on what page, etc.

So rick has coined a novel, but not inconsistent usage. The story is data. The type of story, genre, and the literary conventions it relies on are all metadata.

KraKon said...

"Whether or not the process is bio, I can somewhat imagine that you might want to 'grow' structures made out of Super Nano Carbon Stuff [TM]."

A biological approach might be the solution to creating fine structures (honeycomb armor, microcircuitry, macro carbon tubes) that a machine wouldn't have the finesse to do. This would be using the constructor cells as fine pincers for where big bulky tweezers are not enough.

"The effects of a hard "whack" by a laser or interceptor KKV on Krakon's missile would probably be the bearings seize and the missile is turned into confetti.."

If the bearings sieze, the missile would hardly be affected. What was spinning was two cm-thick shells, with each other's torque equaland in opposite direction. IF the bearings sieze up, we'll see the cylinders of armor scrape against each other than come to a full stop relative to the missile's immobile frame. We now hope the enemy is busy enough with other missiles or is inaccurate enough not to be able to send off a stream of pulses now much less effectively distributed.
No, the biggest problem with pulses is that they unbalance the rotating shells. The missile will start wobbling, and while bits won't fling off due to nanocarbon tube's strength, the missile does not have an in-built recovering mechanism, so problems arise. While a single pulse won't be much of a problem, hundreds of them spread a bit too unevenly will start breaking internal stuff.

"Since (as I understand the description) the main impulse is through laser thermal propulsion,"

Check.

"the act of upsetting the missile would be to throw the laser target in the back of the missile out of alignment,"

Check.

"upsetting and reducing the thrust"

Check.

"and thus the ability of the missile to take countermeasures or move back onto an attack vector."

Not really. If the missile is misaligned right at the edge of the laser PD kill zone, it'll fly straight for 15s and miss. The target can put out a maximum of 0.5g, over 15s will move 562m or around 9 times its length. If the missile is disabled 400km out, or 5s from impact, it will hit because the target only moves by 62.5m.
But this is only taking into account laser PD. The main close-in defense against LTMs is going to be kinetic 'goalkeeper' interceptors. They'll be sent out late both not to get in the way of laser PD, but also to account for their much lower acceleration (light, cheap, chemfuel and disposable does not match 260g+ jinks. Maybe a chemical pellet explosion-based thingy...) by being closer in. Inert missiles coming in at known vectors are easily intercepted.

KraKon said...

" Even with a cooperative target the laser launcher will be working hard to maintain a tightly focused spot on a rapidly moving (and very small) power target."

The launcher uses a mix of radio crypting and inertial navigation. We both know where the missiles are, because we have precise info on their vectors (the launcher gave it to them, so it is known), and regular radar sweeps correct for drift, battle damage and inaccuracies. Radio also has a second function-it paints the target. Since the missile seekers lock onto the return echoes, the radio target painter can pulse the waves into messages intelligible to the missile's recievers, and convert them into maneouvers according to pre-programmed parameters. This way, we can command the missile from a distance (like thrust towards center according to launcher/target line, lining the missile up for the next laser pulse pushing it towards the target). The inertial part greatly helps here as we don't have to actively search for each missile (something the enemy has to do).

"The laserstars which are presumably the targets of Krakon's missiles are part of a constellation so missiles and the launcher will be cooperatively targeted by multiple laser weapons, KKV's and any other weapons technology that is available in the implausible midfuture. Of course the launcher is also part of a constellation (?) so the act of targetting the launcher should also be interesting."

Umm, maybe I didn't clarify but there are no 'Laserstars' as Rick describes them, in design yes but not in fuction, as the 'launchers' are just big honking laser-equipped ships. When I distinguished accelstars from other targets, it was because there are three main types of warship in each constellation-a laserstar/launcher that incorporates a power generator bigger than it will ever need, three drones per accelstar; two have their own laser generators but get power from the accelstar, and one drone deals with kinetic defense (launching goalkeepers) and secondary functions. The main targets here is not a drone, but the accelstar with its generator.
During a standard fight, on both sides, there will be the following function distribution:
1)Both sides consecrate all lasers to accelerating LTMs
2)Both sides, 25 min later (standard wave that balances between final velocity, transit time and numbers), consecrate all lasers to PD
3)As the battle goes on, we'll have part of the lasers doing accelerating of their own waves, and defending from enemy waves.
When defending, with a low number of missiles relative to defenders, all lasers bunch up on single missiles one by one. As the ratio increases and coordinating more defenders againsta single target is too difficult or wastful, the defenders will split into groups taking out batches of missiles.
Launcher/defender mixes depend on if you're in a defensive (massive waves with long transit times) or attacking role (fast waves concentrated on defenders one by one), if you're chasing (maximal end velocity) or going to do a high speed pass (velocity works with you here, so maximise total number of missiles)...lots of interesting tactical scenarios.

"Not really. It's actually a fairly common means of maintaining spacecraft stability. With a spinning spacecraft, you only need one attitude thruster for X and Y axis translation maneuvers. YOu just wait until the thruster rotates around to the right point and thrust. A series of thrusts at the saim point gains you more translation. Alternatively, you can have a number of thrusters arrayed around the circumference of the craft and use whatever thruster happens to be at the right point when a maneuver needs to be made. "

That's true, but taking out the single thruster immobilizes you...and multiple thrusters, while redundant, will complicate the missile by quite a bit. I decided to just leave a non-rotating fram with rotating shells of armor, which despite the bearing problems, vastly simplifies internal structure.

Tony said...

KraKon:

"That's true, but taking out the single thruster immobilizes you...and multiple thrusters, while redundant, will complicate the missile by quite a bit. I decided to just leave a non-rotating fram with rotating shells of armor, which despite the bearing problems, vastly simplifies internal structure."

A homing missile or projectile has to have a minimum level of compexity in order to do its job. Otherwise it's just dumbe shot, no matter how sophisticated its survivability features might be. Beyond that minimum level -- which in space would probably be a spun-up body and a single thruster -- additional complexity is added to increase capability, traded off with expense, reliability, and (possibly) size. There's no one right answer, as the history of guided missiles already deployed should make abundantly clear.

Rick said...

Tony --

In information technology, we use "meta' to mean "about". Thus metadata is data about the data ...
So rick has coined a novel, but not inconsistent usage. The story is data.


Actually I've 'coined' a very old usage - metaphysics, going back to Aristotle, was the topic 'beyond' physics.

The 'data about data' usage is consistent with this broader sense, and has become common in modern usage, e.g., a meta-analysis is an analysis based on multiple previous studies.

Rick said...

Not really. It's actually a fairly common means of maintaining spacecraft stability. With a spinning spacecraft, you only need one attitude thruster for X and Y axis translation maneuvers.

Yes, but this is for a spin axis pointing at or close to the target. Spin along such an axis won't provide protection - the missile has to be spinning 'sideways' relative to the laser beam to smear out the surface area exposed to the beam.

Rick said...

Not really. It's actually a fairly common means of maintaining spacecraft stability. With a spinning spacecraft, you only need one attitude thruster for X and Y axis translation maneuvers.

Yes, but this is for a spin axis pointing at or close to the target. Spin along such an axis won't provide protection - the missile has to be spinning 'sideways' relative to the laser beam to smear out the surface area exposed to the beam.

Tony said...

Rick:

"Yes, but this is for a spin axis pointing at or close to the target. Spin along such an axis won't provide protection - the missile has to be spinning 'sideways' relative to the laser beam to smear out the surface area exposed to the beam."

Then you're getting away from self defense dynamics into mutual defense dynamics.

Milo said...

A spin axis aligned with the laser beam would still provide protection unless the laser is aimed very close to the missile's center of mass.

Thucydides said...

Krakon

You have postulated that your missiles have rapidly spining shells, moving at such high rates of rotation that if the bearings seize or the shells touch there will be catastrophic damage, not just a "sceeching" noise as it comes to a stop.

You also have the missiles moving at a very high velocity, so if they are upset in their flight path, the laser mechanism will now have a random and non cooperative target. the pointer will have to rapidly swivel the mirror at this target and conduct a burn to bring it back on track. This will take time and computer power, which may also have negative impact on sending the outgoing wave on its way (less laser energy available to send the missiles on their way etc.)

If I wanted to have a powerful long range missile or torpedo for space combat, I would be looking for a very high density on board power source on the missile to free the launch vehicle to carry out other tasks.

Milo said...

One obvious problem with missiles using laser propulsion powered from onboard the launching craft, is that it doesn't work beyond the distance where lightspeed lag becomes an issue. This negates the long-range advantage that missiles are supposed to have.

Rick said...

Then you're getting away from self defense dynamics into mutual defense dynamics.

This is not the first time I've wished there was an easy way to sketch diagrams in comments! I'm assuming target seekers coming straight toward the target. If they are spinning the way a bullet would, that provides no added protection against a straight-on beam, though it would provide protection against a beam fired laterally from some other ship.

Thucydides said...

More developments that make laser weapons potentially more effective:

http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/wms-escuti-lasers/

Paging Han Solo: Researchers Find More Efficient Way To Steer Laser Beams
For Immediate Release

Matt Shipman | News Services | 919.515.6386

Dr. Michael Escuti | 919.513.7363

Release Date: 05.02.2011
Filed under Releases

For many practical applications involving lasers, it’s important to be able to control the direction of the laser beams. Just ask Han Solo, or the captain of the Death Star. Researchers from North Carolina State University have come up with a very energy-efficient way of steering laser beams that is precise and relatively inexpensive.

“In many cases, it is much easier to redirect a laser beam at a target than to steer the laser itself. We intended to develop a way to do this efficiently and without moving anything,” says Dr. Michael Escuti, an associate professor of electrical engineering at NC State and co-author of a paper on the research. “We also wanted to be able to steer the beams over a wide range of angles, which is important for practical applications.”

The key to the Escuti team’s success was the use of “polarization gratings,” which consist of a thin layer of liquid crystal material on a glass plate. The researchers created a device that allows a laser beam to pass through a stack of these polarization gratings. Researchers manipulated the optical properties of each grating, and were able to steer the laser beams by controlling how each individual grating redirects the light. “Because each individual grating is very good at redirecting light in the desired directions with almost no absorption, the stack of gratings do not significantly weaken the laser power,” Escuti says.

Another advantage of the system, Escuti explains, is that “every grating that we add to the stack increases the number of steerable angles exponentially. So, not only can we steer lasers efficiently, but we can do it with fewer components in a more compact system.

“Compared to other laser steering technologies, this is extremely cost-effective. We’re taking advantage of materials and techniques that are already in widespread use in the liquid crystal display sector.”

The technology has a variety of potential applications. For example, free space communication uses lasers to transfer data between platforms – such as between satellites or between an aircraft and soldiers on the battlefield. This sort of communication relies on accurate and efficient laser-beam steering. Other technologies that could make use of the research include laser weapons and LIDAR, or laser radar, which uses light for optical scanning applications – such as mapping terrain.

Escuti’s team has already delivered prototypes of the technology to the U.S. Air Force, and is currently engaged in additional research projects to determine the technology’s viability for a number of other applications.

The paper, “Wide-angle, nonmechanical beam steering with high-throughput utilizing polarization gratings,” was co-authored by Escuti; NC State Ph.D. student Jihwan Kim; former NC State Ph.D. student Chulwoo Oh; and Steve Serati of Boulder Nonlinear Systems, Inc. The paper is published in the journal Applied Optics. The research was funded by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory.

NC State’s Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering is part of the university’s College of Engineering.

Tony said...

Milo:

"One obvious problem with missiles using laser propulsion powered from onboard the launching craft, is that it doesn't work beyond the distance where lightspeed lag becomes an issue. This negates the long-range advantage that missiles are supposed to have."

One obvious solution is a hybrid system -- laser propulsion for initial boost and establishment of trajectory, onboard propulsion for trajectory correction and homing. It's no different in principle (though considerably different in application) than a standard 20th century antiaircraft missile that would burn up its propellant in the first 20-30 seconds after launch, then use fins to steer it to the target in semi-ballistic flight. (Semi-ballistic because the missiles often also have wings for lift.)

Rick:

"This is not the first time I've wished there was an easy way to sketch diagrams in comments! I'm assuming target seekers coming straight toward the target. If they are spinning the way a bullet would, that provides no added protection against a straight-on beam, though it would provide protection against a beam fired laterally from some other ship."

The closer the missile gets, the more of it's apparent area is side, not front -- unless, of course, it is fortuitously guiding right at the defensive beam weapon's combat aperture. If you were using a rotating shell (or simply a rotating missile) for passive heat resistance, you would make the missile as thin as possible and as long as possible, in order to minimize exposure of the front end. It might not be perfect, but it's not totally ineffective either.

Thucydides:

"More developments that make laser weapons potentially more effective:"

Look at the contemplated applications: communications and sensors. Weapons grade energy fluxes would burn up an LCD filter, no matter how minimally energy-absorbent it was.

Milo said...

Tony:

"unless, of course, it is fortuitously guiding right at the defensive beam weapon's combat aperture."

Which part of a ship a missile is travelling toward will not matter much until the last several hundred meters of its approach.

Anonymous said...

Tony said:"Look at the contemplated applications: communications and sensors. Weapons grade energy fluxes would burn up an LCD filter, no matter how minimally energy-absorbent it was."

That's not entirely true; using active cooling and arranged into a phased array, the power density travelling through each 'PG' stack is much less than its destructive level. Aiming each indivdual beam so that they all focus at the same spot would require more computer power, but the ability to use the laser to hit a single target, or use it to attack multiple targets would seem to outweigh the costs of the extra computer power.

Ferrell

Milo said...

How does this liquid crystal stuff interact with the lens size/spot size formula?

Thucydides said...

The paper explicitly suggests laser weapons are one application, and if a singular ravening beam of death would overload the system, then many parallel banks of lasers and beam steering devices can be harnessed together to combine their output on any target

KraKon said...

"There's no one right answer, as the history of guided missiles already deployed should make abundantly clear."

I'm just worried that installing more thrusters, better guidance, independant thrusting int he terminal phase and such would make a big hurt on military budget when the average battle between 6 ships on each side is supposed to consume around 3000 missiles. So much so chemical missiles, cheaper, lighter and can be sent off immediately in waves of several thousands would ebcome interesting again. Isaac Kuo on sfconsim-l keeps on mentioning them as better alternatives. I have to provide valid arguments to keep LTAWS hot and burning!

"Yes, but this is for a spin axis pointing at or close to the target. Spin along such an axis won't provide protection - the missile has to be spinning 'sideways' relative to the laser beam to smear out the surface area exposed to the beam."

The thrusters turn the missile up/down/right/left along the axis of travel in preparation for the upcoming laser pulse. To maintain the missile 'sideways' facing the target, the missile assumes a diamond shaped trajectory. The wave splits up in a cone from the launcher. They are seperated by around 300km (cone 300km in diameter, 8800km long) when they enter the target's defensive zone. They then converge onto the target, using their dodge and jink dV (12km/s) to nullify lateral velocity. This keeps them sidewyas facing the enemy at all times; they have enough dV to compensate for the lateral vectors.

"Then you're getting away from self defense dynamics into mutual defense dynamics."

This important when you have several launchers on both sides, defenders on both sides, and hundreds of missiles always moving about. The missiles will never get through individually, together they'll swarm and destroyt the opponents.

"A spin axis aligned with the laser beam would still provide protection unless the laser is aimed very close to the missile's center of mass"

Actually...it is best if either the beam is at a large angle relative to the spin axis OR exactly along the spin axis. In between is the killer. With a large angle, CW beams will be spread efficiently, and pulsed laser potshots distributed along the surface. Dead on, the beam will go throught the empty tunnel in the center of the missile (the missile is a tube, hollow, 30cm in diameter,5cm thick wall on top, 15cm thick wall at the bottm, 60cm long...). In between, the beam will hit the leading edge, which despite having a very narrow cross-section is only a few cm away from the radio recievers, navigation computers and main thrusters, not count ball bearings :)

"You have postulated that your missiles have rapidly spining shells, moving at such high rates of rotation that if the bearings seize or the shells touch there will be catastrophic damage, not just a "sceeching" noise as it comes to a stop."

I have the impression that the bearings won't just sieze, they'll be made of steel, so will get eroded and blasted away by the armor shells before 'seizing up'. Catastrophic damage? Carbon is striong and probably can ahndle wobbles, even at 1km/s+ rotation velocities.

"If I wanted to have a powerful long range missile or torpedo for space combat, I would be looking for a very high density on board power source on the missile to free the launch vehicle to carry out other tasks."

It's not all that long range. It's maximal range is 10000km. That's within a thirtieth of the distance in which the launcher can keep a beam on them. Power won't be an issue then. Because of that, the launcher can use much smaller, more maneouverable mirrors for the terminal guidance, as less power in terms of 100g accelerations is needed than just trying to keep the beam on the little puff of gas behind each missile.

Thucydides said...

Your missiles seem to becoming cases of special pleading.

1. The shells are spinning at hundreds to thousands of RPM, so if a bearing seizes or disintegrates the shells will be striking each other with combined velocities of thousands of RPM, and at unpredictable angles. The binder for the super carbon nano stuff will disintegrate even if the carbon itself does not. Shock waves propagating through the structure will also destroy the internal fittings and equipment.

2. If the thing is hollow, where does the fuel, batteries, sensors, IFF tracker, laser target, thrusters etc. go?

3. If you are deliberately firing in an open cone to make a diamond shaped attack track, then I will simply fire down the middle at your launcher vehicle. "Eyeball frying" the laser mirror solves the thrust problem (and the missiles will coast away from my constellation on the initial outward leg of the attack), while a wave of KKVs coming on a direct vector should cause the captain or control AI to disengage the laser from thrusting to point defense, with similar results.

3. The complicated structure of your missiles will make them expensive even before the bodies are filled with the military hardware like sensors, fuel tanks etc. I could simply devote the same resources to making vast numbers of Sprint or HiBEX type boosters and overwhelm you with KKVs. If I also devote the same amount of resources to laserstars that you devote to your laser launch vehicle then we are equal in lasers, but I overmatch you in in kinetics. Since all of my lasers are available for combat while yours are devoted to powering missiles, by default I have many times the combat power you do.

Laser thermal thrust might be useful to power a bus from well outside the projected kill zone of enemy lasers or KKVs, so you can flood the volume with your KKVs and sensor drones before your ship or constellation arrives, but once the bus disperses its payload, the KKVs are on their own.

Tony said...

KraKon:

"I'm just worried that installing more thrusters, better guidance, independant thrusting int he terminal phase and such would make a big hurt on military budget when the average battle between 6 ships on each side is supposed to consume around 3000 missiles. So much so chemical missiles, cheaper, lighter and can be sent off immediately in waves of several thousands would ebcome interesting again. Isaac Kuo on sfconsim-l keeps on mentioning them as better alternatives. I have to provide valid arguments to keep LTAWS hot and burning!"

I seriously doubt an engagement of that size would require 300 missiles, much less 3000. You guys keep throwing around numbers like they described real things. They're at best SWAGs, based on questionably valid extrapolations of technology that is even today still developmental. I appreciate the perceived imperative to quantify and analyze, but really, all we can make is qualitative judgments, based on general experience so far.

On the basis of qualitative analysis, what can be said is that any real, practical weapon is an exercise in tradeoffs, technical, tactical, and economic. Any real, practical system of weapons is likewise an exercise in such tradeoffs. Qualitatively, it seems like missiles are more versatile and cost effective than beams, for the same reason that missiles have proven more versatile and cost effective than guns, for many applications. And that looks extrapolatable into the future. But any particular configuration of missile is going to be governed by technical and tactical requirements, technical and tactical capabilities, and available resources. Smart money will pay for the most effective weapons, given the circumstances in force, even if those weapons don't meet optimum profiles in some or all of the areas of consideration.

I know...it all sounds so elementary, and lacks hard figures to sink one's fangs into. Well, it seems like after all this sturm und drang it needed repeating. And I don't really care if it satisfies anyone's quantitative cravings. In some very fundamental ways, it's more realistic than any contending sets of dueling numbers ever could be.

KraKon said...

logging in

KraKon said...

"1. The shells are spinning at hundreds to thousands of RPM, so if a bearing seizes or disintegrates the shells will be striking each other with combined velocities of thousands of RPM, and at unpredictable angles. The binder for the super carbon nano stuff will disintegrate even if the carbon itself does not. Shock waves propagating through the structure will also destroy the internal fittings and equipment."

I see what you're getting at. Even if the shells don't disintegrate, the shockwaves produced would reduce all internal components to mush...
I see two options here: Reduce distance between the shells to a few millimeters (so wobbling and such wouldn't be too destructive, as there's not enough space for rotational energy to be coverted into sideways smashing force) and use a REALLY good lubrifiant between the shells.

The second option is to up the price of the missile and use eletcromagnetic bearings.

Also, since the missile is already designed to bear 267g, with probably a tolerance up to 300g+, I'm guessing that shaking the missile wouldn't be THAT destructive.

"2. If the thing is hollow, where does the fuel, batteries, sensors, IFF tracker, laser target, thrusters etc. go?"

The missile has a 10cm wide tube running through it. The drive is a magnetic ring, the sensors are within the walls as radio can go through the armor shells, no need to keep it near the surface. IFF tracker is unnecessary. Batteries are only needed for the sensor/navigation package, so can be small and ring shaped again. The thrusters are electrically-ACTIVATED but don't need current to do their stuff, they're fitted upon the missile's upper and lower 'lips' in armored boxes. Everything is radially symettrical, and all internal components seperated from the rotating shells.

"3. If you are deliberately firing in an open cone to make a diamond shaped attack track, then I will simply fire down the middle at your launcher vehicle. "Eyeball frying" the laser mirror solves the thrust problem (and the missiles will coast away from my constellation on the initial outward leg of the attack), while a wave of KKVs coming on a direct vector should cause the captain or control AI to disengage the laser from thrusting to point defense, with similar results."

A common firing solution that doesn't tag a 'fry me' sign on your lens is to fire off-center. It wouldn't be a diamond-shaped cone anymore, more assymetrical than anything; the launcher can rotate faster than you can move the ship, so it won't have to worry about you trying to 'cross the T' with the laser. More like forming an I but still.

"3. The complicated structure of your missiles will make them expensive even before the bodies are filled with the military hardware like sensors, fuel tanks etc."

The fuel tanks are inside the walls, and take up most of the volume. They are small, with only around 12km/s of gas in them. During the acceleration stage where the enemy PD cannot target the missiles, a simple thin-walled tank is used and ejected later on. This is even simpler than solid booster rockets.

KraKon said...

"I could simply devote the same resources to making vast numbers of Sprint or HiBEX type boosters and overwhelm you with KKVs."


Those would be useless in my setting. They're essentially VERY fast burning chemfuel missiles. As such, they are limited to 5km/s closing velocity (based on maximal efficiency of drive and final kinetic energy). At 5km/s, you need an impactor around 7.8 tons in mass (compared to 30kg) to achieve ship-killing penetration. With a mass ratio of 3, the whole Sprint missile would have to mass in at around 23 tons. No way I'm giving up 77 LTAWS missiles (discounting laser) each capable of destroying a ship for a single 23 ton missile that stays 16 times longer in the enemy's defensive zone.

"If I also devote the same amount of resources to laserstars that you devote to your laser launch vehicle then we are equal in lasers, but I overmatch you in in kinetics. Since all of my lasers are available for combat while yours are devoted to powering missiles, by default I have many times the combat power you do."

I specially worked my setting to make sure BALs are not kings of the battlefield. Spot size is 2cm at target 10000km out. With a 4GW laser, you can use it continuously at the risk of reducing penetration rate by a factor of 12500, or pulsed but with it taking 18 ships one hour and 20 minutes of constant shooting at a single target to have any chance of doing a SINGLE 1.5m deep hole.
BUT
There is a problem in my setting-missile waves are designed to be more numerous than defending lasers by a ratio larger than 52:1. Below 52, there's a good chance that the number of pulses per missile are too great and it'll get destroyed. To get through a full constellation (x18) of defending lasers, 936 missiles are needed per wave as a minimum. This is 280 tons of ordenance, or about a third of a single attacking ship's full load. This is possible if launch starts 10000km away, with an initial volley speed of (x18 launchers) 3km/s. Set that velocity at 2km/s and you'll be overwhelming the enemy with 1470 missiles per wave. So that's not a problem, and an opponent only relying on laser PD will be overwhelmed, as he allows the attacker to devote huge amounts of time and all his available lasers to launching massive waves.
The real problem here is if the enemy decides to consecrate all available payloads to kinetics defenses. Each interception drone can cost a tiny fraction in both mass and money of the missile it is designed to intercept, and despite being severely outmatched one-on-one against the incoming ordonance (10g max vs 260g sustained, less than 1km/s dV vs 12km/s dV...) they can make up for it with numbers, covering all possible dodge or escape vectors of the incoming missile. If they wanna defend, they canna defend. But as with all full-on defensive tactics, the opponent is just letting you mount up a ginormous wave to meet him.

Using the LTM as a booster for an independant warhead is something I'll give thought to, probably as the solution to beyond-launcher-range missiles.

"I seriously doubt an engagement of that size would require 300 missiles, much less 3000."

300 is for the enemy using 6 launchers in defense, 12 launchers (the drones) in attack. 3000 is when you replace your kinetics bay with a dirt cheap chemfuel missile release mechanism, and fill it with dirt cheap chemfuel missiles.

Tony said...

KraKon:

"300 is for the enemy using 6 launchers in defense, 12 launchers (the drones) in attack. 3000 is when you replace your kinetics bay with a dirt cheap chemfuel missile release mechanism, and fill it with dirt cheap chemfuel missiles."

You're missing the point. You're just throwing numbers around without consideration for what their magnitude means in practical reality. Guided missiles are, of necessity, expensive and relatively rare. smart homing projectiles are not so expensive, and not so rare, but they still cost. Maybe this will allow lasers to dominate, but I've already stated my doubts about that too. I think that looking at modern navies and airforces still gives us a good idea of what warfare in space will be like, qualitatively at any rate.

Yes, I know that the conventional wisdom has become IN SPAAACE! is a different environment, with many counterintuitive features. That's true, to a degree. But shooting at the enemy is still an exercise in matching tactics, technology, and resources to targets. That means real physical constraints will impose themselves, and nothing is likely to be as big and clean as spreadsheet analysis wants it to be.

Rick said...

KraKon -

My biggest question about the LTAWS setting at this point would be why to use such powerful lasers to propel missiles instead of just zapping the target? :-D


Tony -

I seriously doubt an engagement of that size would require 300 missiles, much less 3000. You guys keep throwing around numbers like they described real things. They're at best SWAGs

KraKon's describing a particular SF setting, for which he's got to assign some set of numbers (or at least have them in mind). We can argue over the assumptions, but anyone creating a setting has to nail the thing down.

I think that looking at modern navies and airforces still gives us a good idea of what warfare in space will be like, qualitatively at any rate.

The biggest thing (IMHO) that is different IN SPAAACE is not fighting amid the murk and clutter of a planetary atmosphere and surface.

Tony said...

Rick:

"KraKon's describing a particular SF setting, for which he's got to assign some set of numbers (or at least have them in mind). We can argue over the assumptions, but anyone creating a setting has to nail the thing down."

I'm not meaning to come down on KraKon, specifically. When I said, "You're throwing around numbers," I was referring to the collective "you". My criticism is aimed at overquantifying what could be credibly left as a simple prose description of capabilities, without overt justification. If the reader wants to play with then numbers, let him.

"The biggest thing (IMHO) that is different IN SPAAACE is not fighting amid the murk and clutter of a planetary atmosphere and surface."

The atmosphere isn't all that murky when you're using radar and IR. Nor is the surface, if you're at see and using those detection technologies. The same technologies are useful in space.

Also, the atmosphere has the quality of lift when you want to fly and drag when you want to slow down. In space, missiles don't need wings for lift, but they need thrusters to maneuver. Manned spacecraft don't need wings or displacement hulls either, but they still need pressure hulls, and instead of having to provide energy to keep moving, you have to budget energy to start and stop.

There are different adaptations to be made to the space environment, but I really don't see anything that invalidates the broad lessons of warfare over the past few centuries, just differences in some technical and tactical details.

Anonymous said...

One of the things about missile warfare in space is that you can deploy/launch your missiles long before you come into range of defensive fire. This is a major difference from Earth-bound warfare. On Earth, there is an advantage to firing first, but in space there may be an advantage to firing second.

Ferrell

KraKon said...

"My biggest question about the LTAWS setting at this point would be why to use such powerful lasers to propel missiles instead of just zapping the target? :-D"

I specifically set about rendering 100nm wavelength 4GW laser ineffective in my setting at the ranges LTAWS would be used. The launchers (accelstars) do this by having 1.5m thick carbon shells spinning at 500m/s. The shells are 3cm thick and seperated by 1cm of foam or stuff.
This allows me to:
-Render CW ineffective. Small spot size (2cm) running about at 500m/s upon the target surface? PEnetration reduced by at factor of above 10000.
-Render pulsed lasers ineffective. Each pulse makes a crater 5cm wide and 2.5cm deep. Spread it around 2355m² and you'll need a hell of a shooting time to get two pulses to connect and get deeper.
-Render slow, numerous missiles (dreaded dirt cheap chemfuels) ineffective. The thick armor makes sure that a single crater won't touch the ship. You gotta be throwing around 10GJ shots.
-Render penetrators ineffective. Rather hard. Penetrators probably can got hrough the external carbon shell, but will be stopped by the x7 density iron plates under it. The iron plates are used for propulsion, so can be replaced over the hole.
I think that covers about everything.

"KraKon's describing a particular SF setting, for which he's got to assign some set of numbers (or at least have them in mind). We can argue over the assumptions, but anyone creating a setting has to nail the thing down."

I try and make in order:
a)A hard, all-numbers baseline design, for reference.
b)Slide the scales in the baseline design to get varying fleets, ship types and such.
c)Use the latter to make up interesting tactic situations, and roll the dice for actual military effectiveness.

"If the reader wants to play with then numbers, let him."

Poor Weber. Won't happen to me!

"One of the things about missile warfare in space is that you can deploy/launch your missiles long before you come into range of defensive fire. This is a major difference from Earth-bound warfare. On Earth, there is an advantage to firing first, but in space there may be an advantage to firing second."

Very true. This is why I have to start looking into missiles which use an LTM as a booster stage, and an autonomous rocket for a second stage. This would probably change a lot in the setting, so I'll count on the second stage for being not too good against defenses if detected early enough.

Geoffrey S H said...

@KraKon:

"There is a problem in my setting-missile waves are designed to be more numerous than defending lasers by a ratio larger than 52:1."

I'm a little confused here- waves? surely one large strike. Waves might be useful in a missile vs missile engagement with limited ammunition on either side(and even that's doubtful), but surely, as has been pointed out many times here, against a laser with unlimited ammo, the best thing is to launch the ENTIRE payload of your military craft at once? Not one third. Sorry, I can't see the last few posts on the kinetics blog, so I may have missed a new developement.
If the enemy constellation will most definately be overwhelmed that much by not even your entire payload, then surely it won't launch in the first place. If it does, it will be so well protected that a single overwhelming salvo will be necessary for mission kill of the entire force.
I do apologise if I've missed somethig here......

Tony said...

KraKon:

"Poor Weber. Won't happen to me!"

Giving the readers numbers is the way a lot of SF writers get in trouble. Look at Niven, All he did was give the reader the diameter and rotational period of the Ringworld. He wound up writing three sequels to answer all of the readers' crticisms.

So what i was getting at is you don't give the readers any numbers you can avoid giving them. Then any criticisms they have are based on their own assumptions, making them invalid.

Rick said...

Giving the readers numbers is the way a lot of SF writers get in trouble.

I actually agree with this entirely. For example, I'm not quite sure that Elizabeth Moon's battle descriptions hold up, but since she provides no numbers to speak of, there's nothing to pin her down on.

But writers have to have some internal sense of numbers to know whether, for example, a battle is a minute of rock & roll or a running fight over days.

Well, maybe not have to, depending on where they want to be along the hardness/impressionism scale. The stuff I talk about here is not necessarily what matters in writing fiction. And in fact often is not.

jollyreaper said...

Giving the readers numbers is the way a lot of SF writers get in trouble.

I actually agree with this entirely. For example, I'm not quite sure that Elizabeth Moon's battle descriptions hold up, but since she provides no numbers to speak of, there's nothing to pin her down on.

But writers have to have some internal sense of numbers to know whether, for example, a battle is a minute of rock & roll or a running fight over days.


Don't forget that the readers aren't Word of God. They screw things up, too. Second-guessing isn't always accurate guessing. We have many accounts of later historians overruling the interpretation of earlier, contemporary historians or the later ones engaging in deliberately distortive revisionism to fit with current mores and politics, etc.

Remember the faster than the wind car? FasterThanTheWind.org Guy posts video of the car he built, makes extraordinary claim, invites people to test claim, first tests fail, much nerd-rage back and forth with people swearing it's real/faked, finally google steps in to fund a test to settle the matter.

The nice thing here is that we have definitive answers. It gets rougher going back in history. Some historians like to do a plausibility check on the numbers quoted by the contemporary works. Historian claims army was this big. Ok, how many horses, how many men, what sort of supplies would be needed? How many men back home are needed for one man in the field? Could the known population support that kind of deployment?

Sadly, it's hard to tell for sure without all the facts available. I'd say it often ends up being not that dissimilar from geeks trying to figure out the stats of an Imperial Star Destroyer by going through Star Wars frame-by-frame and reading tea leaves.

I think the YMMV territory will come into this based on the story someone is trying to tell. If it's a romance set in the knights and castles era, the soldiers and peasantry are background decoration. If it's hardcore politics and war with a heavy focus on the king's strategy, the very nature of the story demands numbers and will likely be correct because this is a wargammer writing the novel.

But yeah, less detail is better if you don't know what you're talking about. The knight-hero carries a sword, fine, perfect, all we need to know. But don't go and and give him an épée while describing him fighting against other armored knights. The sword is anachrostic and wouldn't even be useful in that fight.

Of course, this also sets up room for "real life doesn't fit expectations" with swords being rare weapons, knights not tromping around in full armor all the time, the fully articulated suits of armor coming far later than we like to think when looking at Arthurian legend, etc. Authenticity can feel inauthentic.

Thucydides said...

I think this was discussed in another thread; readers want a story, not a textbook.

Now, granted, different readers want different stories (hence the various sections in the bookstore or library) and even within genres, there are varying degrees of hardness or softness. How the author deals with this is of great interest to perceptive readers and other authors. To use the example of the middle ages, the knights would actually be fighting with smashing weapons like maces or hammers if plate armour is common; or using long proto rapiers to stab through the joints, while the sergeants and foot solders would be using various polearms to provide enough leverage to cause death or injury, or at least hold armoured knights far enough back they can't reach you.

You could simply write the battle scene straight up without stopping to say why everyone is armed as they are (and that annoying person bringing up firearms will be dispatched by a trusty squad of Genoese crossbow men...heh). You could provide a bit of backdrop; the squires pulling the smashing weapons out of the weapons bags because they see enemy knights armed cap-à-pie; or a medieval Tom Clancy would have a chapter on the art of case hardening, finding the right angles to bend hooks on the backs of polearms, what angles the protective plates around the armoured joints should be....

I think the vast majority of readers would accept laserstars as a given, and even ravening beams of death capable of engaging a target o light second away with just a small amount of hand waving (adaptive optics? Oh, rigggght.) They would also accept that such a weapon would be a capital ship or key component in a constellation, and also fairly rare (the Uranus Space Navy has 11 constellations built around President Class laserstars...). most of us might keep Tony's objections in the backs of our minds while plotting stories around such devices (maybe a passing reference to vibration dampers immersed in a tank of liquid to dissipate heat).

Milo said...

Thucydides:

"To use the example of the middle ages, the knights would actually be fighting with smashing weapons like maces or hammers if plate armour is common;"

Many of them would, but there were swords, like estocs and longswords, that were specifically developed to work better against armor. What you won't see, though, is the "classic knightly" arming-sword-and-heater-shield combo in a setting where they already have full plate armor.


"or using long proto rapiers to stab through the joints"

I can't see that working. You either need to use a sword with the weight to punch through armor (like the aforementioned estoc), or, if you want to aim for the joints, you need a light and accurate weapon like a knife. Rapiers in any case were only ever used against unarmored opponents (most commonly in duels or in self-defense - rapiers were never weapons of war).

Rick said...

I think the vast majority of readers would accept laserstars as a given

Hell, the vast majority of readers are untroubled by missiles hitting with gigaton kinetic impacts in order to deliver megaton nuclear warheads.

This blog and Atomic Rockets cater to a handful of obsessives, and probably a slightly larger group who find it amusing to contrast popular tropes with what would 'really' happen.

jollyreaper said...


Many of them would, but there were swords, like estocs and longswords, that were specifically developed to work better against armor. What you won't see, though, is the "classic knightly" arming-sword-and-heater-shield combo in a setting where they already have full plate armor.


That's the trouble with wrapping your head around this stuff, there's just so large of a swath of time to consider with tech scattered all across it and our Hollywood experience being terrible preparation. Movies, games, novels, they all mix and match shamelessly so it becomes so difficult to get things right.

Milo said...

Mind you, it's still possible that a weapon could have been useful in a time and place where they weren't historically used, in the counterfactual case that it had occured to anyone to try.

Thucydides said...

The rapier argument can devolve into the Tom Clancy sort of thing...

Some swords like the estocdid become much narrower in the 1500's as a response to plate armour becoming too difficult to penetrate with conventional swords; they often had diamond shaped profiles and were indeed designed to stab through joints in the armour (being one of the few weak points). Medieval fighting texts are full of warnings as to the effectiveness of the thrust and how it was "deadly as a serpent." http://www.thehaca.com/essays/thrusting_vs_cutting.html

These swords evolved into what we would recognize as rapiers in the late 1500's and early 1600's; swords could not deal with a fully armoured man, but a fully armoured man could not be protected against firearms, so armour gradually fell from favour, while swords retained their allure as a mark of an aristocrat or well born "gentleman". Even today, officers in various military forces still carry swords as part of their parade or ceremonial uniforms.

Once again, this sort of information should be part of the authors tool kit, but how it is presented is important. Outside of this blog post the argument will seem esoteric and beside the point (is the hero going to pull his sword and dispatch the bad guy?), but it could be important (the bad guy's sword misses the joint and is deflected off the fluted plates on the hero's Gothic suit of armour), or provide some background (the hero recalls the fencing master's advice at a critical moment), or a breathtaking moment of doubt and fear for the reader (our hero's estoc snaps on an ill timed thrust, he spins out of the way of the return thrust while trying to pull the war hammer from his belt....)

Rick said...

The rapier argument can devolve into the Tom Clancy sort of thing...

From what I have seen online this is notably true of swords in general, even though they have far fewer moving parts than submarines.

jollyreaper said...

From what I have seen online this is notably true of swords in general, even though they have far fewer moving parts than submarines.

That's because Michael Bay has never made a swordfighting movie.

Thucydides said...

Jollyreaper for the win!

Rick said...

Yeah, I think so.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I do have to wonder at the idea that 600 Missiles will be cheaper than 1 laserstar.

In todays Navies ...
600 torpedos are not cheaper than a Cruiser.

You would think there would be some point where the massive kinetic kill salvo simply would not make sense, whether its 100 missiles, or 50, or whatever it is.

(Yes that is why David Weber's warfare economics seem wacked too)

Scott said...

600 torpedos are not cheaper than a Cruiser.

Pulling numbers from wikipedia, and using 1985 dollars for the Burke, 1988 dollars for the Mk48.

A Mark-48 ADCAP torpedo costs about $3.5m.

Counting weapons systems, an Arleigh Burke DDG (which is the size of a Washington Treaty cruiser and does 'cruiser' missions) is $1.1b.

Ok, you're right. 600 torpedoes is not cheaper than a modern cruiser. Anything less than 300 torpedoes is cheaper, and you only need one to get through.

I guess the real question is whether your ASATs are closer in cost to modern torpedoes or modern missiles. Harpoon missiles are only $1.2m each, so I can throw almost 1000 Harpoons at a Burke.

Oh, I can also make the smaller items more quickly than I can make a single large cruiser, so not only can I swarm your cruisers, but it will take you longer to replace them than it will take me to replace their cost in missiles or torpedoes. This means there are really two costs involved here: one is financial, the other is chronological.

Thucydides said...

The only downside to the argument is you still need a means of delivering all those missiles/torpedoes/shells etc.

This is not to say that there are not cheap or cost effective means of doing so (a container ship costing a fraction of a ship constructed to Naval standards would be capable of carrying a thousand missiles), but part of the reason we have warships is to ensure the best possible chance of getting there and delivering the ordinance on target. Our hypothetical container ship carrier would probably be blown out of the water before more than a small fraction of the missiles could be launched (which I think was one of the objections to the so called "Arsenal ship" idea).

The "laserstar" idea is based on the specialized nature of the various systems that make up the weapon, but I can see 747 sized spacecraft packing a megawatt laser as a real possibility, since it is already close to current state of the art using real 747's. How far this idea can be pushed is obviously a point of contention, ravening beams of death are certainly mathematically possible, but translating this into usable hardware for space (gigawatt Xasers with effective engagement ranges of light seconds) is obviously a very difficult proposition.

Anonymous said...

Scott

Oh, I can also make the smaller items more quickly than I can make a single large cruiser, so not only can I swarm your cruisers, but it will take you longer to replace them than it will take me to replace their cost in missiles or torpedoes.
==========

Yes, but only if you succeed in killing the "cruiser"

They were tossing around numbers like 600 missiles needed to kill a Laser-Star.

At some point it is simply more economical to have more Laser-stars -- since they only cost money if they are destroyed. As opposed to missiles, which cost money either way.

In our times air-to-air missiles are a bargain compared to a 20 million dollar fighter, especially if it only takes 1 missile. If it took on average 50 $1 million missiles for a kill though -- They would go back to dog-fighting.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Also I used the torpedo reference since missiles in space are likely to resemble spacecraft. In terms of propulsion, guidance, etc.

Otherwise they will have very limited Delta-V, which will hamper their usefulness.

--------

In Naval engagements in the modern world I suppose Missile shave the same problem. They accelerate faster and fly faster than Naval ships but have much less range.

However in that environment they can accelerate and move so fast they can easily cross the engagement window.

In a Space Battle - things are different. A Chem Fuel missile for example will not be able to streak through the engagement window making the spacecraft look like they are sitting still.

Milo said...

SA Phil:

"Also I used the torpedo reference since missiles in space are likely to resemble spacecraft. In terms of propulsion, guidance, etc."

Missiles are likely to have chemical rockets. They need high-thrust propulsion (so ion thrusters are out), and fission or fusion reactors probably won't fit on a tactical missile. (Unless you have very good miniaturization, any missile with its own fusion reactor would be more like a hellebrander than a missile.)


"Otherwise they will have very limited Delta-V, which will hamper their usefulness."

A missile needs delta-vee for two things: building closing speed, and tracking the target's course changes.

The former can optionally be done by a launch tube rather than the missile itself. The latter doesn't need to be able to outmatch the target ship's full delta-vee capability - it only needs to outmatch the delta-vee that the target ship can put out in over the course of the encounter. Since ships likely have high delta-vee but low thrust, this won't be very much.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I suppose I am envisioning encounter times that last hours or days, not minutes.

Detection and weapon ranges are huge, but travel speeds are not.

The scenario I believe was Lasers with a Light second range.

For example at 10kps a ship or missile ship would take more than 8 hours to traverse a light second.

Using a chemical rocket the missile would only be able to accelerate constantly at the very end of the journey, while I suppose that is feasible - it seems more like a guided bullet than a guided "missile"

jollyreaper said...

Mars v. Earth with equivalent tech bases always struck me as a particularly good test case for realistic stl fights. The big question is whether actual conquest would be attempted or if it's just civ smashing like ww3. I'm imagining frenzied build programs with salvos launched at the window for shortest approach. If there's real tech parity then the fight could remain stalemated for years and years, neither side able to build sufficient capacity for a full saturation. 

Scott said...

As an aside, Mk48 ADCAPs are much more effective against submarines. A basic Mk48 cost $894,000 in 1972 dollars, $2.3m in 1985 dollars. You could buy 478 basic Mk48s for one Arleigh Burke. Still not enough, I know.

The key variable in this discussion is the relative cost of the missiles versus the laserstar.

The SM3 ASAT is $9.3m per unit, and I think that's our best current guess for the cost of an ASAT missile. If that's the case, then the max cost of a laserstar is $5.6b in 2010 dollars.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I think the costs would be different than current missile/warship costs

Just the relative costs might be the same.

Since both the missile and the warship need to be "space going" vehicles with similar systems

jollyreaper said...


At some point it is simply more economical to have more Laser-stars -- since they only cost money if they are destroyed. As opposed to missiles, which cost money either way.

In our times air-to-air missiles are a bargain compared to a 20 million dollar fighter, especially if it only takes 1 missile. If it took on average 50 $1 million missiles for a kill though -- They would go back to dog-fighting.


Or consider the modern day: imagine that naval lasers are wildly, insanely effective to the point that it would now take 50 antiship missiles for effective saturation of the target and that's assuming that you can properly coordinate the time on target attack. And while we're at it, let's imagine that counter-torpedo torpedoes also become successful. How would you crack a warship now?

Certainly raises some interesting questions. The most absurd solution would be that laser warships have superior firepower to anything in the air or afloat but are sufficiently armored to defeat other laser warships so the only way to settle the fight is to return to the ramming prow. May as well equip the marine detachment with chainswords while we're at it!

Rick said...

A missile with its own fusion drive (or whatever deep space propulsion) is probably a killer bus, carrying some large payload of target seeker submunis.

That said, the analogy to fireships, if not necessarily hellburners, could be fairly close. Conceivably, like 17th century purpose built fireships, they could be used in other roles until/unless needed in their primary mission.

Probably not as cruiser types, as in real history, since that mission requires a crew, therefore a hab, not something you want to fit on a killer bus!

jollyreaper said...

That said, the analogy to fireships, if not necessarily hellburners, could be fairly close. Conceivably, like 17th century purpose built fireships, they could be used in other roles until/unless needed in their primary mission.

Probably not as cruiser types, as in real history, since that mission requires a crew, therefore a hab, not something you want to fit on a killer bus!


There's always the question of whether or not it's feasible to recover the bus. I've wondered why they never made flyback cruise missiles. I figure it was basically a question of complexity. If you're shooting at a long range target, you double the range for a one-way trip and it's plenty complicated to try bombing with the missile instead of just flying into the target. Our combat drones are thus really our first example of a flyback cruise missile. It's now cheaper to return the bus rather than expend it. But we still use dedicated cruise missiles for particular targets.

It really comes down to the tech in the setting as to whether it's more practical to put the FTL on the drone or use a carrier to ferry it into combat and leave it safely behind.

With STL killer buses the question becomes whether it's cheaper to have a hundred little missiles with little drives making the same delta-V or if it's cheaper to have one big honking drive bring them all up to speed. Nobody has a good, definitive answer on that yet.

Thucydides said...

Cruise missiles are small because they are one way systems. A UAV with the same range as a cruise missile but capable of returning would need a minimum of twice as much fuel, leading to bigger tanks, a larger fuselage, bigger wings to lift it, more structural mass etc. (and I haven't even added the extra mass of landing gear or other systems needed to enter the flight path of an airfield)

In space the situation is even worse, you need to accelerate to target, decelerate at the target zone, accelerate out of the target zone and decelerate back home. The returnable bus (Drone) would need to be something like 8X larger than a killer bus to carry the fuel and remass, since you have to accelerate and decelerate the mass of the fuel you use to get home.

In some instances, like laser combat drones, this is still a positive trade if the mass is much less than a manned spacecraft, but from an economy viewpoint KKV's should be sent on a one way mission via a space ICBM type bus rather than a reusable drone. The bus can release the cloud of submunitions on command or according to certain target parameters that maximize damage to target.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

In a space combat, you could compromise there-

You could have some variable thrust system or dual drives.

The "cruise missile" could race into the combat zone, attack with a laser or kinetics of some kind, then just zoom right through the combat zone and out of the fight.

Then it could change course and using a high ISP drive make a rendezvous trip somewhere and be recovered.

Thucydides said...

The reason a returnable spacecraft is at least 8X larger than a one way ship is the fuel and remass you are going to use at the end of the mission has to be hauled all the way there and back again.

In fact, unless you are willing to settle for wars that last for decades at a time while fleets coast into position (something like global war in the age of sail) it seems much easier to launch ships on very fast one way approaches. If the ship was successful in attacking the target it would coast by on a long elliptical orbit and arrive back at fleet HQ years or decades later (if at all).

A solar sail accelerating at 1mm/s^2 can reach Mars from Earth in 4 months, but the return leg from Mars to Earth will take about two years. If you need to take operations to the outer planets, then the mission is essentially one way for the carrier ship, it might reach the target in a militarily useful time but then pass out into the Kruiper belt before finally starting on the return leg.

A military vessel might be a high ISP rocket rather than a solar sail, but the same astrodynamic principles will apply. Unless you are willing to haul a huge amount of remass to brake, a fast approach to the target will be a one way mission, win or lose.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

That is essentially what I was thinking.

High Thrust/High mass flow attack propulsion

low thrust High ISP/Low mass flow "return" propulsion

An example -
You could combine Nuke Electric and Nuke Thermal Propulsions.

Use Hydrogen directly heated by the reator for the attack.

Use a Electric created hydrogen plasma on the "fuel saver" return mode.

Tony said...

If there is a significant performance difference between interplanetary/interstellar propulsion and tactical propulsion, it's probably going to go one of two ways:

1. Either the space warship is a manned craft, in which case it gets to the battlespace on a carrier of some type, and is in effect a fighter (whether we like the connotation or not), or

2. The warship is a relatively small drone, in which case it gets to the battlespace carried by a manned control/depot ship (manned for positive local control, if for no other reason), and it's an RPV of some description.

I'm agnostic about the expendability of drones per se, or even small manned fighters. They have to be expendable, and you just can't think of them as capital equipment, at least not in wartime. But the carrier/command/depot ships are going to be the real capital ships, and battles will be decided by whose capital ships become vulnerable first, forcing a withdrawal.

Of course, if the mission is one-way, do-or-die, that's going to have a significant impact on how forces are assembled and what kinds of equipment they'll be assigned.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I should note that in the more speculative "Laserstar" environment a High Thrust warship is not necessary.

No plausible amount of thrust for a human occupied space craft is going to matter if lasers have a 1+ light second effective range.

Even missile and drones are going to have problems bridging that 1 light second chasm to get into "striking range."

And thus the Laser Star Constellations Ironically become very suited to both human crews and return voyages, since they can have very high ISP, low thrust propulsion systems.

Thucydides said...

Of course, if the mission is one-way, do-or-die, that's going to have a significant impact on how forces are assembled and what kinds of equipment they'll be assigned.

That would require a force of space ICBMs to project power, ABM/ASATs to protect the home territory and an essentially Air Force or Strategic Rocket Command type of set-up for use. The only sprts of spacecraft that might be considered practical are long range, long lasting satellites and probes to provide sensor input to watch for enemy launches and provide BDA for your first wave of strike craft.

Most of the men and equipment would otherwise be hidden underground on the home planet and scattered bases on the various moons and asteroids.

Hardly the Space Navy we dreamed about; not even a space going "Das Boot" for tough spacers to lounge around telling tall tales as the Romulan Brandy flows...

Tony said...

Re: Thucydides

One can't do interplanetary war by remote control. One has to send at least some humans to make real time tactical decisions.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Doesnt that depend on the speed the decisions have to be made?

If you have a 2 minute communication delay but no decision needs more than a 10 minute lead time .. You would still be in the clear.

Anonymous said...

=Milo=

In orbit, passing through a planetary shadow means that you can be out of touch with home for a few hours at a time.

This can be sorta-remedied by having comm relays at different orbital phases, but those relays would be vulnerable.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"Doesnt that depend on the speed the decisions have to be made?

If you have a 2 minute communication delay but no decision needs more than a 10 minute lead time .. You would still be in the clear."


The minimum theoretical round trip message time between Earth and Mars (for example), with zero time for response composition, is 00:06:04 (in hours:minutes:seconds notation). The maximum theoretical time is 00:44:34. I think a good average is about 20 minutes. But in military planning you have to be ready for all plausible cases. So you have to be ready to deal with 44.5 minutes, plus decision and routing times. That's for the closest likely battlespace in the PMF.

Byron said...

Phil:
Doesnt that depend on the speed the decisions have to be made?

If you have a 2 minute communication delay but no decision needs more than a 10 minute lead time .. You would still be in the clear.

Yes, that's correct. I'm not sure we'll see that long of a decision lag, and there's not very many things within 10 light-minutes of Earth. Actually, I expect decision lags to be in the tens of seconds.

Tony:
The minimum theoretical round trip message time between Earth and Mars (for example), with zero time for response composition, is 00:06:04 (in hours:minutes:seconds notation). The maximum theoretical time is 00:44:34. I think a good average is about 20 minutes. But in military planning you have to be ready for all plausible cases. So you have to be ready to deal with 44.5 minutes, plus decision and routing times. That's for the closest likely battlespace in the PMF.
That was a nice evasion of the question. You're correct as far as you go, though.

Milo:
In orbit, passing through a planetary shadow means that you can be out of touch with home for a few hours at a time.

This can be sorta-remedied by having comm relays at different orbital phases, but those relays would be vulnerable.

The shadow time wouldn't be that long. With a properly-designed (probably polar) orbit, you should be able to get near-continuous coverage, and even if you didn't, the maximum time behind the planet would probably be no more than 45 minutes for Earth.
The relays aren't a huge deal. I'd design my drones with a lockdown mode. If they lose communication, they use an automated threat-recognition system, and broadcast that they are using it. The parameters are fairly loose, but I've published them. Anyone who finds himself within them is either trying to attack or is an idiot. This lasts until communication is reestablished.

Tony again:
If there is a significant performance difference between interplanetary/interstellar propulsion and tactical propulsion, it's probably going to go one of two ways:

1. Either the space warship is a manned craft, in which case it gets to the battlespace on a carrier of some type, and is in effect a fighter (whether we like the connotation or not), or

2. The warship is a relatively small drone, in which case it gets to the battlespace carried by a manned control/depot ship (manned for positive local control, if for no other reason), and it's an RPV of some description.

That's pretty much what I see. I guess the reason I don't consider it likely is that in deep space I can't see a role for any recoverable high-performance craft. In lower orbits it's a different story, and I do expect orbital fighters, with fire support from on high or below.

General:
I have though of an interesting anti-laserstar tactic. The use of sand should be able to shut down a laserstar. I am not proposing Traveller-style sandcasters as I understand them.
Refit a missile with a warhead full of sand and a small bursting charge. Launch it slightly ahead of the rest of your missiles. Shortly before it enters effective range of the enemy laserstar, it bursts, sending the mother of all micrometeorite hazards right at the laserstar. The commander then has to make a decision. The sand cloud will hit right before the incoming kinetics. If he shutters, he protects his mirrors, but loses a lot of effectiveness against the incoming kinetics. If he doesn't shutter, his mirror gets degraded. I'm not sure zapping the sand would work either, and even if it did, that would still be time spent not zapping the incoming kinetics.
I haven't done the math yet, mostly because I have no clue how much sand would be required to seriously damage the mirror. Just an idea.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Time to decision is more than just communication speed though.

It depends a lot of possible targets, level of robot autonomy, etc.

We tend to think of combat "like today's" war. Which makes sense everyone always prepares for the last war.

But it isnt necessary to make those assumptions.

Would you need to tell the Laserstar to fire at each specific incoming KKV? Probably not.

If you were to use late WW2 style target allowances, you might be willing to let the computer dicide what to attack as well.

And so on.

Byron said...

Phil:
Would you need to tell the Laserstar to fire at each specific incoming KKV? Probably not.
Definitely not. That would be automated. I'm reluctant to let the drones get too far out of my control, though. KKV defense is a lot easier to automate than target selection, and I'm a lot more comfortable doing so. Accepting collateral damage will help, but I don't want more of that than I can avoid, either. See my stuff about lockdown.

And, for lack of a better place to post, I'd like to reveal ShipBuilder 3.0. It's a spreadsheet I've been working on for about 6 months, and it should provide a good starting point for building PMF ships. Download it and try it out. Suggestions welcome, though I'm more interested in formulas than numbers.

jollyreaper said...

Delegation of command and control is one of the things commanders groused about the most in the history books. King George III had to accept that he could only give the broadest of directives to his generals in the Colonies. If he wanted to be directly in charge, he'd have to go there himself.

Kings and generals had to delegate to subordinates and trust in their judgment. Modern telecommunications allowed leaders to run ways from a continent away but that created a whole host of problems on its own.

I know it's a loose comparison but consider real-time strategy games. A human opponent is always more dangerous than a machine opponent. Put me on a map against the enemy AI, I'll defeat it. The only difference between it being there and not is that it's going to take me time to reduce his fortifications.

When looking at an RTS with a strategic map, I imagine what it would be like if those battles that I'm fighting in series in the campaign could be fought in parallel. My human opponent player takes a territory, sets up a base and the full production of the territory is going into his resource bank. When I attack, his defenses are running on auto and a warning is sent to him. He then has the ability to manually intervene.

Older RTS games moved at a slower pace and you could pick them apart methodically. The newer ones are influenced by Korean gamers and are insane twitch-fests. Company of Heroes if awful in that regard. The enemy will attack on multiple axes, will give you no breaks and you are likely going to go down in defeat, even on the easy level.

A lot of weight is put on the adaptability and unpredictability of the human mind but there are many situations where the outcome is a mathematical certainty. In the case of bunny v. sledgehammer, the bunny's going down. It makes me wonder at what point an expert system war machine would be sufficient for most circumstances and can be trusted to call home for help.

The point I'm getting at is that we already have the delegation problem to other humans that we do with delegating to machines, the commander never being entirely satisfied with not being in all places and handling all problems himself. And how often do we run into cases where the human element can overturn what seems to be a clear and certain outcome?

Tony said...

Byron:

"That was a nice evasion of the question. You're correct as far as you go, though."

I wasn't dodging anything. A parameter value was nominated. I related it to real world conditions. I left it up to the reader to decide what that meant.

"That's pretty much what I see. I guess the reason I don't consider it likely is that in deep space I can't see a role for any recoverable high-performance craft. In lower orbits it's a different story, and I do expect orbital fighters, with fire support from on high or below."

Remember, I don't believe in deep space battles, even beyond the PMF. Battles are always fought over something, and in proximity to that something. THe great battles of the Age of Sail were all near land. Even in the vast reaches of the Pacific in WWII, major carrier air battles were precipitated by amphibious invasions.

I see no reason why space would be any different. It's planets or their moons that will be fought over. So the fighting will take place in their orbital space.

"I haven't done the math yet, mostly because I have no clue how much sand would be required to seriously damage the mirror. Just an idea."

I wouldn't worry about damaging the mirror. That's just icing on the cake. Ripping up the heat radiators is all you really need to do. And that's much eaiser to accomplish, because the laser would have a lot more sand to vaporize to in order to successfully defend itself. Even if it could vaporized that much sand, it would actually have to be powerful enough to push the ions of the sand away from the laserstar, or else you'll wind up with everything on the outside nicely electroplated with whatever the sand in made of. That can't help.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"Time to decision is more than just communication speed though.

It depends a lot of possible targets, level of robot autonomy, etc.

We tend to think of combat "like today's" war. Which makes sense everyone always prepares for the last war.

But it isnt necessary to make those assumptions."


In some very fundamental ways, there are no assumptions to be made. One always has to recognize the influence of strategic logic, economic constraints, and political conditions.

"Would you need to tell the Laserstar to fire at each specific incoming KKV? Probably not.

If you were to use late WW2 style target allowances, you might be willing to let the computer dicide what to attack as well.

And so on."


We'll never outgrow the need for positive human control, because war is fundamentally about human political issues. Anybody that fields a weapon that shoots at anything it evaluatesto be a target, even in the middle of a war, is going to become Public Enemy Number One.

Byron said...

Tony:
Remember, I don't believe in deep space battles, even beyond the PMF. Battles are always fought over something, and in proximity to that something. THe great battles of the Age of Sail were all near land. Even in the vast reaches of the Pacific in WWII, major carrier air battles were precipitated by amphibious invasions.
By 'Deep Space' I meant anywhere that's mostly empty and relatively flat. That could be at the outer edges of a Hill Sphere, or probably anywhere in translunar space. And I agree that powers won't just go out and fight for no reason, but a deep-space battle might occur if one side tries to intercept the other.

Ripping up the heat radiators is all you really need to do. And that's much eaiser to accomplish, because the laser would have a lot more sand to vaporize to in order to successfully defend itself. Even if it could vaporized that much sand, it would actually have to be powerful enough to push the ions of the sand away from the laserstar, or else you'll wind up with everything on the outside nicely electroplated with whatever the sand in made of. That can't help.
I'm not sure that the degradation will be that severe. Radiators are going to be a lot less susceptible to micrometeorites than the mirror, which means a higher density required to be effective. It's not a bad idea, but in the absence of numbers, all we can do is speculate. Though if it is common and effective, adding extra radiator capacity might be the norm for warships.

We'll never outgrow the need for positive human control, because war is fundamentally about human political issues. Anybody that fields a weapon that shoots at anything it evaluatesto be a target, even in the middle of a war, is going to become Public Enemy Number One.
That's called a gunner.
I forsee automated systems only for kinetic defense, where target discrimination is fairly simple, or in case of loss of contact, and then under fairly strict terms. See my lockdown example.

Tony said...

Byron:

"By 'Deep Space' I meant anywhere that's mostly empty and relatively flat. That could be at the outer edges of a Hill Sphere, or probably anywhere in translunar space. And I agree that powers won't just go out and fight for no reason, but a deep-space battle might occur if one side tries to intercept the other."

I don't think you'll see fighting, even in interception engagments, beyond limits where high impulse (as in thrust, not specific impulse) propulsion is practical. You just can't maneuver fast enough in a tactical context with electric rockets. So I think fighting is really only going to be in the local orbitals.

"I'm not sure that the degradation will be that severe. Radiators are going to be a lot less susceptible to micrometeorites than the mirror, which means a higher density required to be effective. It's not a bad idea, but in the absence of numbers, all we can do is speculate. Though if it is common and effective, adding extra radiator capacity might be the norm for warships.

Radiators may be more robust under micrometorite bombardment, but that's still only in the context of random events. Toss a couple of handfuls of sand at them at orbital velocities, and I think all bets would be off.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Isnt the sand essentially a "Clump" unless you do something to disperse it?

And once you disperse it how do you tell Mr Newton to stop dispersing?

Eventually your density suffers beyond utlity.

I beleive thats why on the AR it is suggested Sand would not be very effective as a laser defense.

Byron said...

Phil:
Isnt the sand essentially a "Clump" unless you do something to disperse it?
Yes, there would have to be a method to disperse it. Possibly some sort of small explosive charge.

And once you disperse it how do you tell Mr Newton to stop dispersing?
You figure out the dispersion speed and range to target so it arrives at the correct density.

Anonymous said...

Jollyreaper

I know it's a loose comparison but consider real-time strategy games. A human opponent is always more dangerous than a machine opponent. Put me on a map against the enemy AI, I'll defeat it. The only difference between it being there and not is that it's going to take me time to reduce his fortifications.
===========

But potentially they can have a lot more stuff than you by not having a human controller.

Its harder to beat the computer, when the computer cheats.

----------

As to target discrimination - I disagree with Tony, again I think he is looking at it through a contemporary lens.

If for example no one lives more than 10 million miles from earth except the bad guys, you can afford to burn down any target 10+ million miles out that isn't one of your own ships.


(SA Phil)

jollyreaper said...


But potentially they can have a lot more stuff than you by not having a human controller.

Its harder to beat the computer, when the computer cheats.


In the older games the computer cheated by playing by different economics. Now it doesn't have to cheat because it can do what humans are bad at. Humans can focus on one task at a time solidly. Anything that requires thinking needs full attention. People will use hotkeys to trigger build orders at base but they have to be directly focused on any incursion. Part of this is because AI's too stupid to fight the units intelligently. The enemy generally takes more losses than you but will be funneling more forces in.

And even if you can keep up with that, it ceases to feel fun and feels more like stress!

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"As to target discrimination - I disagree with Tony, again I think he is looking at it through a contemporary lens.

If for example no one lives more than 10 million miles from earth except the bad guys, you can afford to burn down any target 10+ million miles out that isn't one of your own ships."


That's special pleading. It's also ignoring the likelihood that in the PMF it won't be planets against planets, but various powers on Earth vs each other in Earth orbital space, Mars orbital space, and maybe in the orbital space of one or two of the larger main belt asteroids. Bad guys, good guys, and other guys will all be jumbled up together in every battle space.

Anonymous said...

Tony,

That's special pleading. It's also ignoring the likelihood that in the PMF it won't be planets against planets, but various powers on Earth vs each other in Earth orbital space, Mars orbital space, and maybe in the orbital space of one or two of the larger main belt asteroids. Bad guys, good guys, and other guys will all be jumbled up together in every battle space.

=========

That is why I suggested it would depend on your assumptions.

No way to know how jumbled together everyone would be until you define it.

(SA Phil)

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"That is why I suggested it would depend on your assumptions.

No way to know how jumbled together everyone would be until you define it."


Some things are beyond speculation and the shape of your assumptions. Mars can't Earth until Mars has a roughly equivalent economy. Even a defensive battle as part of a rebellion (to invoke a much overused SF trope) require Mars to be able to field a significant space force from its own resources. When you get there, you're livingi n the realm of space opera, not the PMF.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Interesting

So let me see how this works out:

1) In the PMF there wont be much up in space, because the economics wont support it.

2) However in the PMF I need to worry about not hitting the wrong thing. Because everything will be jumbled together.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Waitaminute I didnt account for the "in orbit" thing

In orbit though I can just control my space craft from the ground.

Not much light speed lag there.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"Interesting

So let me see how this works out:

1) In the PMF there wont be much up in space, because the economics wont support it.

2) However in the PMF I need to worry about not hitting the wrong thing. Because everything will be jumbled together."


As already stated, I don't suffer from cognitive dissonance. I can be realistic about what our likely prospects are, but also rationally speculate about what they would be if we had certain theoretical capabilities.

If we have the consensus PMF toolkit -- some, but not, ubiquitous access to space and semi-regular interplanetary travel, with a space population of tens or hundreds of thousands -- then we could foresee Earth powers competing across the solar system, but we could not foresee the residents of any particular solar system body being able to challenge the Earth on their own.

So we would expect armed representatives of every state with a space force at every significant body. That puts realtime positive control at a premium.

"Waitaminute I didnt account for the "in orbit" thing

In orbit though I can just control my space craft from the ground.

Not much light speed lag there."


I said combat would most likely happen in the orbital space of any body worth fighting over. I didn't say just the orbital space around Earth. (Though that's where a war would most likely be won, as long as the industrial base remains on Earth -- control access to space from the Earth, and you control the solar system.) If your force HQ is on Earth, but the battle is out at Mars, you'll need positive human control in Mars orbital space.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

So .. in other words .. a set of assumptions.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"So .. in other words .. a set of assumptions."

When you're speculating -- whether it's in money or ideas -- everything depends on your assumptions. I just don't accept that any particular set of assumptions necessarily represents the real world of the future.

Rick said...

All this is highly relevant to the laserstar question, because the 'pure' laserstar, as I've described it, is intended to defend a planet's orbital space (or whatever region of local space) from a hostile constellation that comes from Somewhere Else and therefore arrives out of deep space.

If local or locally-based rivals are mixing it up in local space, I fully agree that laserstars are very ill-suited for that kind of fight.

I'll wait to expand on the implications for an upcoming post or posts.


Byron - I'm glad you finally took the leap. I've been shilly-shallying forever about how to handle 'guest' materials.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Okay on this "sand" idea

Is there something inherently more useful to sand? Or is it possible that other obstructions might work?

For example on a per mass basis, Sawdust would be pretty awesome for filling a specific volume (1/6th the density of sand)

Ice would fill about 3x the volume as sand.

http://www.simetric.co.uk/si_materials.htm

Possibly some engineered compound could work also.

Also there are denser materials, uranium maybe.

I always did love the sand-casters in Traveler - although perhaps having a sand-caster as the warhead of your missile might be interesting as well.

---
Also I agree with Rick - nice work on the spreadsheet.

Byron said...

Rick:
I'm glad you finally took the leap. I've been shilly-shallying forever about how to handle 'guest' materials.
It had more to do with me not realizing Google Docs would work than anything. I have BattleTrack 4.0 under construction, though it might be a while. Plus, there's some other stuff I could post, if anyone's interested.

Phil:
Is there something inherently more useful to sand? Or is it possible that other obstructions might work?
Not really, no. I don't think sand is special, but I do think density is going to be important, as it's going to be easier to burn through sawdust than sand. Other than that, mass is pretty much the only determinant of effectiveness.
That in mind, I think sand strikes a good balance, as it's cheaper than the denser alternatives, such as refined metals, and volume isn't that vital.
All of the above is off the top of my head. The sand itself isn't really that important. So long as it's a fine particulate, just about anything should work.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

hmm

Powdered graphite/carbon might be interesting - if its high melt point would be a benefit to being burned through.

Byron said...

Phil:
Very true. In a lot of ways it doesn't really matter what you use so long as it's a fine powder.
Actually, having the powder and spreader be the same density as the normal warhead might be good. That way they can't be told apart until it's too late.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Perhaps if it is a Kinetic kill missile, then all the missiles could actually be potential sand-casters.

The Missile could break apart to spread a cloud of "sand"

Or remain intact for the harder contact.

I suppose you could even use your scattering charge as a proximity fuse to add a little bang to the smash.

Thucydides said...

Laserstars (or whatever you choose to call a high power laser weapon) will have lots of utility in orbital space, the only caveat will be the laser itself won't be in the same orbital space.

Ground mounted lasers will be the obvious first step, being used to blind enemy sensors, or as laser brooms to sweep debris from the sky at first, then as direct attack weapons as power output increases. Orbital "fighting mirrors" can be added to the mix to redirect the beam and increase the coverage.

Laser weapons in space will most likely be in very high orbits, able to look "down" on potential targets. The wide field of view provides utility and protection from enemy KKVs, and the target density in LEO isn't dens enough to prevent the laser from picking off individual targets in orbit (or maybe even high up in the atmosphere. Burning missiles or even aircraft from orbit would be a most desirable feature).

Even the idea of a constellation would exist, the laser would need secondary sensor and communications relays, and perhaps "escorts" to increase its effectiveness (the "escort" could be another laser satellite far enough away to require a separate attack but close enough to have overlapping laser coverage with the first laser sat).

Byron said...

I've done more research and math on the use of "sand" against laser mirrors. I put sand in quotes, as for my math, I used used both basalt and iron/steel.

The initial parameters were as follows:
Particle Diameter: .5 mm
Impact Velocity: 30 km/s
Mirror Material: Beryllium
Particle Mass (Iron): 5.15e-7 kg
Particle Mass (Basalt): 1.87e-7 kg
Required damage area: 10%
Damage to crater area ratio: 4

I used the equations found here.
10% was chosen arbitrarily, and it should provide a 20% reduction in peak intensity if I read Luke's site correctly. If you wish to scale, I multiplied the actual values by 1.1 to compensate for an area getting damaged multiple times. The damage-to-crater ratio is meant to reflect the fact that I doubt an optical-grade finish can be maintained immediately around the crater. I could be wrong, in which case my numbers are low by a factor of 4.

The results were as follows:
Iron:
Dc: 1.08 cm
Ad: 3.69e-4 m2
298 impacts/m2
1.54e-4 kg/m2

Basalt:
Dc: .652 cm
Ad: 1.34e-4 m2
824 impacts/m2
1.54e-4 kg/m2

In both cases, if the payload breaks at 5 minutes out and the target can accelerate at 1 milligee, the total amount required is 94.1 kg.
As can be seen, the amounts needed for each are very similar. Theoretically, iron, with a higher density, should be superior. However, I used Luke's laser calculator to find the "clear time" assuming a 10-meter, 1 GW laser. "Clear time" is how long the laser would take to vaporize the projectile in question when the beam diameter is equal to the mirror diameter. The normal steels (there was no iron) took 8.2 seconds. The granite and sandstone (there was no basalt) took 1.46 and 5.68 minutes respectively. The numbers might be off, but the patter is obvious. Stone is much better than metal.
I haven't experimented with different diameters yet, but given that the mass per unit area was the same, density has nothing to do with effectiveness.

Byron said...

Oh, and nanostuff is a bad idea. It's density is lower than the other materials and clear time would be 1.52 seconds.

Thucydides said...

The only objection I would have against trying to sand blast a mirror is based more on the theoretical calculations from earlier space war threads.

A ravening beam of death operating at close to theoretical capability would need over 1000 KKVs to overwhelm the weapon. Even if we take a huge reduction in capability based on Tony's observations we will still need to launch over 100 KKV's. Considering even the largest surface warships don't have that sort of capability in the here and now, this would suggest that any space warship capable of doing so would be huge, or alternatively there will be a large number of missile stars in the constellation.

Frankly, if I need to put in that much time and effort to deal with a laserstar, then I will not be loading out "sand" warheads but going for the hard kill.

The other work around would be to simply turn the laserstar around and have the engine bell pointed at the enemy and the primary mirror away. The laser is fired "over the shoulder", and the dead zone in front of the laserstar is covered by either on board KKVs or complimentary coverage by another laserstar in the constellation. The laserstar can also launch relay mirrors to redirect the beam, but at the cost of decreased range and longer times to acquire the target. This has a secondary benefit for the laserstar, it makes eyeball frying attacks more difficult (especially if the beam is being rotated between several fighting mirrors).

Byron said...

Thucydides:
The only objection I would have against trying to sand blast a mirror is based more on the theoretical calculations from earlier space war threads.
I know that I haven't really addressed that, and I'll attempt to do so here.
The point of a sand warhead isn't really to blast the mirror. It's a penaid for the KKVs. Either the attacker spends a while blasting through the sand cloud (which is unlikely, even though the thrust from the vaporized material will make it a lot faster than calculated), shutters his mirror when the KKVs are getting close, or takes a reduction in his mirror capacity for later. None of these are good options.
If we assume that it takes .5 seconds to shutter or unshutter the mirror, then a point cloud of sand will remove 1 second from firing time. If we spread the sand out along the axis of travel, we accomplish two things. First, it makes shooting through the cloud more difficult. Second, it forces the mirror closed for longer. 50 m/s in each direction will result in a 1-second impact interval for my proposed projectiles. This is significantly more than the lateral separation, but it should be plausible. Several seconds could be blocked by each projectile, and they would be staggered to force the shutters closed for longer. The question is how long it takes the laser to destroy a KKV (which I assume has the same mass as a sand shell) during the critical window. If it's more than the time taken by the sand shell, just fire another KKV. If not, then sand has an advantage.
The laser is fired "over the shoulder",
How does that work?

Thucydides said...

While I understand your reasoning, it still seems the laser will have a significant range advantage over a KKV, and the destruction of the incoming weapons will be taking place far beyond the range that penaids of most sorts will have value. The reason that hundreds or thousands of KKVs are needed is so the laser simply hasn't enough time to zap them all before one or more finally get through.

Since you cannot predict which KKV is going to be zapped at the light second mark and which one will beat the odds, then it makes the most sense to ensure that any single KKV will have the ability to cause major damage to the target. This incidentally applies to any target that the laser is defending, not just the laser itself. This is similar to the logic of having limited ABM defense on Earth. While you might not get every nuclear warhead, no one will be able to say *which* warhead will get through, so strategic calculations like what percentage of hardened targets like enemy ICBM silos will be destroyed are now invalid.

While Americans may not have been convinced of this logic, the former USSR was, and maintained both the "legal" Galosh ABM system around Moscow and many high performance SAM systems which may have served double duty as ABM interceptors. B-52s do not fly at the edge of the atmosphere, after all.

As for the "over the shoulder" shot, consider a spacecraft with the engine pointed in the direction of the enemy and the laser's optical train in the "nose" pointed away from the enemy. The primary mirror will have to reflect the laser beam back over the mass of the ship towards the enemy. In practice this would leave a cone shaped void where the ship itself blocks the mirror, which is covered by the use of remote fighting mirrors that redirect the beam, or supporting ships in the constellation which provide coverage. Thinking of Rick's analogy of a constellation as a mobile Vauban fortress, this makes perfect sense, as each piece of the fortress was designed to have mutual support from flanking structures.

Anonymous said...

Byron ..

Stone is much better than metal.
----------------

How about lunar regolith?

It has an advantage in that it is a lot easier to get "up there" with the smaller lunar gravity.

(SA Phil)

Anonymous said...

Thucydides said...

The only objection I would have against trying to sand blast a mirror is based more on the theoretical calculations from earlier space war threads.

A ravening beam of death operating at close to theoretical capability would need over 1000 KKVs to overwhelm the weapon.
---------------

I was under the impression that these sand clouds might be a way of effctively reducting the number of KKV's.

In that they become large numbers of incoming debris that needs to be cleared or survived, without needing as much mass as an equivilent covered volume of missiles.


(SA Phil)

Byron said...

Thucydides:
While I understand your reasoning, it still seems the laser will have a significant range advantage over a KKV, and the destruction of the incoming weapons will be taking place far beyond the range that penaids of most sorts will have value. The reason that hundreds or thousands of KKVs are needed is so the laser simply hasn't enough time to zap them all before one or more finally get through.
I'm not so sure about that. As ranges get shorter, the beam gets more lethal. If a sand shell can force the laser to shutter for 2 seconds during a time period when the laser can kill one KKV of equivalent mass per second, then it starts to make sense, particularly if the sand shells deploy far enough out that they are only destroyed statistically. Even then, they're probably cheaper than normal KKVs.

As for the "over the shoulder" shot, consider a spacecraft with the engine pointed in the direction of the enemy and the laser's optical train in the "nose" pointed away from the enemy. The primary mirror will have to reflect the laser beam back over the mass of the ship towards the enemy. In practice this would leave a cone shaped void where the ship itself blocks the mirror, which is covered by the use of remote fighting mirrors that redirect the beam, or supporting ships in the constellation which provide coverage. Thinking of Rick's analogy of a constellation as a mobile Vauban fortress, this makes perfect sense, as each piece of the fortress was designed to have mutual support from flanking structures.
I expect that a laserstar's mirror will only have a very small amount of train available. Probably 15 degrees at the outside, which makes that impractical. This is because the mirror is likely going to approach the diameter of the ship.

Phil:
How about lunar regolith?

It has an advantage in that it is a lot easier to get "up there" with the smaller lunar gravity.


That's why I used basalt for my stone. I don't expect raw rock/sand to be used due to difficulties with patterns and such, but the maria are made of basalt. The highlands are anorthosite, which I believe is slightly less dense, but should still do fairly well.

I'm still working on optimizing diameter, but it might take a while. .5 mm looks fairly good, though.

Thucydides said...

You can make mirrors of any size to fit your assumptions, but for practical reasons the mirror will be as small as ppossible, to allow rapid slewing and reduce the costs and numbers of special components needed. Look at the "thimble" on the ABL in relation to the size of the 747 carrier aircraft.

As well, if you are trying for some sort of coordinated attack and need specific "time on target" spacing for the sand clouds to force the mirror to be shuttered, then you run into exactly the sort of problem ABM defense is supposed to create; uncertainty. If an unknown percentage of sandcasters are being disabled at long range by the laser, then you have no idea what percentage of KKV attacks are going to be cleared in by the sand cloud.

Of course this may become a moot point anyway, if you are firing a wave of missiles at one vessel or section of the constellation, they are being taken under attack from many angles and directions from the mutually supporting ships and weapons of the constellation. To go back to Vauban, we need to somehow overwhelm a particular element of the constellation to create a weak point that can be exploited. Since digging "saps" and approaching with a battery of cannons and an assault force is impractical, some form of overwhelming attack at one point of the constellation is needed to destroy a ship (or several), and then the main attack needs to be directed through the gap before the various elements can be repositioned to close it off.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

The Large Mirrors are for extended range.

Small Mirrors/short ranges lack the seemingly massive one-sided superiority over KKVs

Byron said...

You can make mirrors of any size to fit your assumptions, but for practical reasons the mirror will be as small as ppossible, to allow rapid slewing and reduce the costs and numbers of special components needed. Look at the "thimble" on the ABL in relation to the size of the 747 carrier aircraft.
That makes no sense as an analogy. The design constraints in the two situations are so different that we really can't point to it.
The bigger the mirror, the better the laser performs at any range. Period. Ships will mount, as a primary weapon, the biggest laser and mirror possible. There will be secondary weapons, but even then, if the laser has a shot at the incoming KKVs, the sand, which is coming from the same direction, will hit the mirror. If the sand is properly dispersed, a given sand cloud could last several seconds, plus shutter/turning time. So the "over-the-shoulder" approach really adds nothing to the defense, and deprives you of your highest-power laser in the bargain.

As well, if you are trying for some sort of coordinated attack and need specific "time on target" spacing for the sand clouds to force the mirror to be shuttered, then you run into exactly the sort of problem ABM defense is supposed to create; uncertainty. If an unknown percentage of sandcasters are being disabled at long range by the laser, then you have no idea what percentage of KKV attacks are going to be cleared in by the sand cloud.
So you use redundant sand shells. If the target has 4 lasers, each of which can take out 1 KKV/second, and I fire a TOT salvo of 3 sand shells, each of which has a 1/3 chance of being taken out, and will suppress the target for 2 seconds, I'm still ahead. There's a 1/27 chance of all of them being zapped, and if even one of them makes it through, it saves 8 KKVs.

Of course this may become a moot point anyway, if you are firing a wave of missiles at one vessel or section of the constellation, they are being taken under attack from many angles and directions from the mutually supporting ships and weapons of the constellation.
Not as much as you might think. Remember, variable-focus lasers obey the inverse-square law. The most effective weapons are those aboard the target ship. If other ships are very close, I might try to suppress them, too.

Tony said...

Byron:

"The bigger the mirror, the better the laser performs at any range."

In theory. In practice, the bigger the mirror, the harder it is to train and elevate, the more overrun on fast slews, due to inertia, and thus longer settle times before a solution hardens up to a firable state. In the relatively close range self-defense context, it makes much more practical sense to have several small lasers than one large one, no matter how super-wonder-awesome a single large laser is in theory.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I thought the point of the big mirror laser was to move the self-defense to long range.


The longer the range the less sweep overall you need to mirror to move.

Byron said...

Tony:
In theory. In practice, the bigger the mirror, the harder it is to train and elevate, the more overrun on fast slews, due to inertia, and thus longer settle times before a solution hardens up to a firable state. In the relatively close range self-defense context, it makes much more practical sense to have several small lasers than one large one, no matter how super-wonder-awesome a single large laser is in theory.
Did you even read the entire comment? I specifcally said that there would be secondary weapons better suited for KKV defense. Also, the bigger mirror makes kills faster when you do get pointed at the target. I am not going to debate this again, particularly as it's not really relevant to the current discussion. Sand will work equally well against a lasernought or any ship with lasers.

Tony said...

Byron:

"Did you even read the entire comment?"

Yes I did. But I only quoted and specifically criticised a single statement:

"The bigger the mirror, the better the laser performs at any range."

I pretty much agree with you on the rest, including the potential effectiveness of unguided microparticles.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"I thought the point of the big mirror laser was to move the self-defense to long range.


The longer the range the less sweep overall you need to mirror to move."


The point of the big laser is to concentrate as much power as possible into each shot. That may improve effectiveness at longer range, but only if the aiming precision of large mirrors is the same as that of small ones. On general mechanical principles that's probably not going to be the case.

Byron said...

Tony:
I suppose I should have defined effectiveness better. As it was, I meant that it simply would have higher intensity.

The point of the big laser is to concentrate as much power as possible into each shot. That may improve effectiveness at longer range, but only if the aiming precision of large mirrors is the same as that of small ones. On general mechanical principles that's probably not going to be the case.
I'm not so sure about that. While it might be more difficult, I'm going to assume that all possible effort will be spent to make the big mirror as accurate as possible. The same might not be true of the smaller mirrors, as they don't need that level of precision. Your statement is true in principle, but until we get into fine details of technology, we can't be sure how big of an impact it will have.

To change the topic, we haven't disucssed phased array lasers in a long time. They have several advantages in this. First, instintanious steering, which is a major advantage in PD mode. Second, the main laser could probably be split into multiple beams for PD use. Third, it would probably be more damage-resistant than large mirrors. It would be slightly less effective than a large mirror of the same size, but the advantages might counterbalance that.

Tony said...

Byron:

"I'm not so sure about that. While it might be more difficult, I'm going to assume that all possible effort will be spent to make the big mirror as accurate as possible. The same might not be true of the smaller mirrors, as they don't need that level of precision. Your statement is true in principle, but until we get into fine details of technology, we can't be sure how big of an impact it will have."

IMO any steerable laser mirror needs as much inherrent mechanical precision as you can build into it. For long range mirrors the point is obvious. For short range mirrors, especially for less powerful lasers, the quicker you can get on target and settle the solution, the better. And, given the constraints of mechanical engineering, the smaller mirror should be more inherrently precise than a larger one.

"To change the topic, we haven't disucssed phased array lasers in a long time. They have several advantages in this. First, instintanious steering, which is a major advantage in PD mode. Second, the main laser could probably be split into multiple beams for PD use. Third, it would probably be more damage-resistant than large mirrors. It would be slightly less effective than a large mirror of the same size, but the advantages might counterbalance that."

My concern would be that it wouldn't be more robust under attack than a large, monolithic mirror. The array is still presumably to be constructed as compactly as possible. With the energies involved in kinetic attacks, any part of the array that gets hit will probably destroy the whole array with secondary projectiles.

Also, a phased array has more components to fail. While this means that the array will probably fial more gracefully, than a single mirror -- which is a single point source failure mode, along with a lot of other components in its optical train -- it also means that the array will rarely if ever operate at nominal peak capacity.

Finally, a phased array is not likely to be as precise as a monolithic mirror of the same capacity. This is simply a function of all the pieces that have to work together. This is acceptable with radar frequencies, but with lasers?

Thucydides said...

"As big as possible" and as "small as practical" are two ways of saying the same things. Tony has pointed out in this and other threads why gigantic mirrors of 10m diameter would have many disadvantages compared to a 5m diameter mirror. The trade off in theoretical performance is outweighed by practical improvements in slewing and pointing performance compared to the larger mirror.

There are many places where larger mirrors are the optimal solution, such as laser launchers, where you are tracking a cooperative target on a well defined track, or laser power beaming, with most of the same advantages. These could be pressed into service as military weapons if needed (and they would be very dangerous inside their prescribed arcs), but for things like laser ABM satellites or hypothetical laser armed warships, "practical" would be the prime consideration.

Byron said...

Tony:
IMO any steerable laser mirror needs as much inherrent mechanical precision as you can build into it. For long range mirrors the point is obvious. For short range mirrors, especially for less powerful lasers, the quicker you can get on target and settle the solution, the better. And, given the constraints of mechanical engineering, the smaller mirror should be more inherrently precise than a larger one.
I do understand that, but there is a difference in how much I need and how much I'm willing to pay. For a big mirror, you need a higher amount of precision, and will be willing to pay more. Money can do lots of things, but budgets aren't unlimited. We could see all lasers having about the same degree of precision, regardless of size.

My concern would be that it wouldn't be more robust under attack than a large, monolithic mirror. The array is still presumably to be constructed as compactly as possible. With the energies involved in kinetic attacks, any part of the array that gets hit will probably destroy the whole array with secondary projectiles.
I'm not too sure about this.
My idea is that the phased array basically covers the whole front of the phaserstar. However, each element is isolated, and if you put baffles between them, secondary debris should be minor. Also, a damaged element can be shut down, alleviating the problem of frying yourself.

Also, a phased array has more components to fail. While this means that the array will probably fial more gracefully, than a single mirror -- which is a single point source failure mode, along with a lot of other components in its optical train -- it also means that the array will rarely if ever operate at nominal peak capacity.

Finally, a phased array is not likely to be as precise as a monolithic mirror of the same capacity. This is simply a function of all the pieces that have to work together. This is acceptable with radar frequencies, but with lasers?

I'm not that sure about the second. We're dealing with electronic systems. It's eitirely possible accuracy could actually increase. The first is true, but we won't be sure of the exent of the drawbacks until we get there. On the other hand, are they enough to outweigh the benefits of the phased array?
1. Instant steering: The beam can be instantly redirected to a wide variety of angles. There might be some turrets to cover the flanks, but the main laser could bear across a much wider range than normal.
2. Cost: The phased array modules could be mass-produced, significantly reducing cost. This also reduces maintainence.
3. Multi-beam capability: The phased array could be split into a number of beams, removing the need for dedicaded point-defense lasers.
4. Versatility: The phased-array laser can have multiple uses. It would funtion as an inferometric telescope, a long-range laser, a PD laser, and a ladar system.

Byron said...

Thucydides:
"As big as possible" and as "small as practical" are two ways of saying the same things. Tony has pointed out in this and other threads why gigantic mirrors of 10m diameter would have many disadvantages compared to a 5m diameter mirror. The trade off in theoretical performance is outweighed by practical improvements in slewing and pointing performance compared to the larger mirror.
You're completely correct until you start using numbers. I agree that we will see an upper limit on practical mirror size, but we honestly don't know where it will be. Claiming that it will disallow laserstars, and even putting specific numbers out, is a step too far. And honestly, I was under the impression you were discussing a normal laserstar.
For story purposes, you can set the level wherever you want. I still don't expect a main weapon to be able to fire over-the-shoulder, and even if it could, it wouldn't help.

Tony said...

Byron:

"I do understand that, but there is a difference in how much I need and how much I'm willing to pay. For a big mirror, you need a higher amount of precision, and will be willing to pay more. Money can do lots of things, but budgets aren't unlimited. We could see all lasers having about the same degree of precision, regardless of size."

For any given level of precision, it should cost more per unit mass the larger you get. And mass varies in the third power with size, all other things being equal. I'm pretty sure that once you get past a certain minimum cost for control systems, your marginal costs based on size will go through the roof.

"I'm not too sure about this.
My idea is that the phased array basically covers the whole front of the phaserstar. However, each element is isolated, and if you put baffles between them, secondary debris should be minor. Also, a damaged element can be shut down, alleviating the problem of frying yourself."


Covering the front of the vessel is still relatively compact, and all of your steering mirrors still have to be in the path of the laser emitter. Also, encasing the elements in armor is adding deadweight mass to your system. It might be necessary for survivability's sake, but it isn't without cost.

"I'm not that sure about the second. We're dealing with electronic systems. It's eitirely possible accuracy could actually increase."

You mean precision? (Precision is hitting what you shoot at; accuracy is shooting in the right place.) It's entirely possible. But you're dealling with electrochemical technology, not pure electronics. There might be latency issues that extend time between shots, changes in the properties of the chemicals in the LCDs induced by rapid heating and cooling, and who knows what else.

"The first is true, but we won't be sure of the exent of the drawbacks until we get there. On the other hand, are they enough to outweigh the benefits of the phased array?
1. Instant steering: The beam can be instantly redirected to a wide variety of angles. There might be some turrets to cover the flanks, but the main laser could bear across a much wider range than normal."


But is the steering instant? See above comments about electrochemical systems and their properties in operation.

"2. Cost: The phased array modules could be mass-produced, significantly reducing cost. This also reduces maintainence."

They could still cost quite a lot. And if there is a high failure rate in service of mass produced elements, then you don't save any money. You basically get the choice between constant testing and replacement or paying up front for quality hardware.

"3. Multi-beam capability: The phased array could be split into a number of beams, removing the need for dedicaded point-defense lasers."

Presuming the enemy attack only comes through a relatively narrow cone.

"4. Versatility: The phased-array laser can have multiple uses. It would funtion as an inferometric telescope, a long-range laser, a PD laser, and a ladar system."

Jack of all trades, master of none. Also, if you're using the laser to shoot in one direction, you can't use it to look in another, even with multiplexing. finally, if you lose the array for whatever reason, you lose all of those capabilities at once. I'll stick with separate optimized systems, thank you very much.

Anonymous said...

Tony,

The point of the big laser is to concentrate as much power as possible into each shot. That may improve effectiveness at longer range, but only if the aiming precision of large mirrors is the same as that of small ones. On general mechanical principles that's probably not going to be the case.
---------

This is a visible light laser using the optics to sight the target .. using visible light.

The fact that the mirror is better at sighting the target is directly related to the mirror's size, which dierectly translates into the laser's effectiveness.

The Laser isnt aiming at some spaceship 1 light second away, it is aiming at the image of that spaceship a few meters away.

It is basically a "two-way telescope"

(SA Phil)

Anonymous said...

Tony,

Jack of all trades, master of none.
--------------

How does that work?

Your usual argument is the Laserstar is TOO specialized.

(SA Phil)

Byron said...

Tony:
For any given level of precision, it should cost more per unit mass the larger you get. And mass varies in the third power with size, all other things being equal. I'm pretty sure that once you get past a certain minimum cost for control systems, your marginal costs based on size will go through the roof.
I do understand that, but this is an area that is so sensitive to technological assumptions that any attempt to guess is a shot in the dark. Both of us will probably be right at some point.
Also, laser mirror mass will more likely scale with the square of diameter.

Covering the front of the vessel is still relatively compact, and all of your steering mirrors still have to be in the path of the laser emitter. Also, encasing the elements in armor is adding deadweight mass to your system. It might be necessary for survivability's sake, but it isn't without cost.
At the very least, a phased array will be more damage-tolerant than a conventional laser. I believe it's likely to be more so, perhaps significantly, particularly against sand threats, as part of it can be shuttered.

You mean precision? (Precision is hitting what you shoot at; accuracy is shooting in the right place.) It's entirely possible. But you're dealling with electrochemical technology, not pure electronics. There might be latency issues that extend time between shots, changes in the properties of the chemicals in the LCDs induced by rapid heating and cooling, and who knows what else.
I can see a phased array having superior pointing accuracy, however you choose to classify that.
Electrochemical? Where did that come from? I was planning on solid-state lasers, phase-locked into the array.

They could still cost quite a lot. And if there is a high failure rate in service of mass produced elements, then you don't save any money. You basically get the choice between constant testing and replacement or paying up front for quality hardware.
Could you explain why every time I suggest that something might be cheaper, you automatically dismiss it as shody? I'm proposing the laser equivilant of an AESA, where each element is a module. Instead of building a few big lasers, I make a bunch of these. The large production run brings costs down, and if one does go bad, I can swap it out. I don't expect the per-element failure rate to be that much more than it is for a big laser, though.

Presuming the enemy attack only comes through a relatively narrow cone.
First, why? It's a phased array, which makes it steerable to a fairly broad degree. Second, I expect that those sort of attacks will be the norm. Third, I specifically said that there would probably be turrets for the flanks.

Jack of all trades, master of none. Also, if you're using the laser to shoot in one direction, you can't use it to look in another, even with multiplexing. finally, if you lose the array for whatever reason, you lose all of those capabilities at once. I'll stick with separate optimized systems, thank you very much.
I do understand that, and to some extent I agree with you. However, there are two problems. First, how likely is it that you lose the array and keep the ship? Second, even though there are specialize systems, the phased array will likely be the best at those jobs. It might be nice to use them all at the same time, but if the laser's pulsed the only ones that are mutually exclusive are the laser modes. The lidar is a secondary module, or a secondary funtion of the main modules, while the telescope works on different frequencies.
Honestly, I'm not sure how effective a phased-array laser would be. If the main laser is dominant, then it makes little sense. If secondaries dominate, then it starts to look better.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"This is a visible light laser using the optics to sight the target .. using visible light.

The fact that the mirror is better at sighting the target is directly related to the mirror's size, which dierectly translates into the laser's effectiveness.

The Laser isnt aiming at some spaceship 1 light second away, it is aiming at the image of that spaceship a few meters away.

It is basically a 'two-way telescope'"


I can be used that way, for fire control. But you have to also to have a wide angle search system to detect and identify targets. The requirements are mutually exclusive. And if you use your laser mirror for fire control, you have to move the fire control sensor (or a mirror to the sensor) out of the beam path before firing and then back into place for battle damage assesment.

I'm not sure exactly how that would work for boresighting purposes, flipping something constantly in and out of the optical path as rapidly as possible. The true limit on laser weapons precision may be how big a fire control telescope one can build, and how well one can boresight it to one or more laser weapons.

"How does that work?

Your usual argument is the Laserstar is TOO specialized."


As a weapons platform, yes. I always presumed that a lasertar operator, even if (IMO) too enamored of a single weapon technology, had enough sense to optimize his weapons and sensors for their respective roles.

Tony said...

Byron:

"At the very least, a phased array will be more damage-tolerant than a conventional laser. I believe it's likely to be more so, perhaps significantly, particularly against sand threats, as part of it can be shuttered."

I don't see it. A phased radar array is no less vulnerable to damage than a rotating radar antenna, except in the sense that if you use more than one array to cover multiple aspects, the loss of a single array doesn't entirely eliminate your coverage. But when you're talking about one for one replacement of an array for a monolithic mirror, that doesn't apply.

"Electrochemical? Where did that come from? I was planning on solid-state lasers, phase-locked into the array."

They currently use LCDs in phased optical arrays. In principle each array element has to be able to effect the optical properties of its mirror. I suppose you could use piezoelectrics to physically manipulate the mirror's shape instead of using and LCD film over the mirror, but you still have to change the mirror's physical shape or properties somehow. And that kind of thing is sensitive to temperature changes, mechanical or chemical latencies, etc.

"Could you explain why every time I suggest that something might be cheaper, you automatically dismiss it as shody?"

I'm not dismissing anything. But every decision has a cost. YOu may realize some economies of scale with mass production, but given the precision nature of the machines in question, and the relatively low rate of manufacture, I don't think by much. So whatever you sepnd on your array elements, that's how much you investi n their quality.

"I'm proposing the laser equivilant of an AESA, where each element is a module. Instead of building a few big lasers, I make a bunch of these. The large production run brings costs down, and if one does go bad, I can swap it out. I don't expect the per-element failure rate to be that much more than it is for a big laser, though."

The production run is larger in absolute terms, but it's not such an increase in numbers that the legendary mass production economies of scale kick in.

"First, why? It's a phased array, which makes it steerable to a fairly broad degree. Second, I expect that those sort of attacks will be the norm. Third, I specifically said that there would probably be turrets for the flanks."

So it's a phased array. It still can't shoot to its rear or sides.

The enemy gets vote too -- knowing you are relying on a single phased array, he would certainly attack you from as many angles as he could, and take his chances with your other defensive systems, whatever they were.

"I do understand that, and to some extent I agree with you. However, there are two problems. First, how likely is it that you lose the array and keep the ship? Second, even though there are specialize systems, the phased array will likely be the best at those jobs."

I don't see how it could be good at all jobs. Fire control and search/detection have mutually exclusive requirements, no matter what frequency range you are operating in.

Byron said...

Preface:
I'm honestly not totally convinced on this subject, and I may drop this debate at any time. It seemed like an interesting idea to try.
Tony:
I don't see it. A phased radar array is no less vulnerable to damage than a rotating radar antenna, except in the sense that if you use more than one array to cover multiple aspects, the loss of a single array doesn't entirely eliminate your coverage. But when you're talking about one for one replacement of an array for a monolithic mirror, that doesn't apply.
And it's impossible for the array to keep working with one element taken out? Even then, my statement stands.
They currently use LCDs in phased optical arrays. In principle each array element has to be able to effect the optical properties of its mirror. I suppose you could use piezoelectrics to physically manipulate the mirror's shape instead of using and LCD film over the mirror, but you still have to change the mirror's physical shape or properties somehow. And that kind of thing is sensitive to temperature changes, mechanical or chemical latencies, etc.
I'm not sure that either of us is qualified to comment on the exact properties of phased-array lasers. Even then, electrochemical is likely to be faster and not much if any less precise then mechanical systems. This is a question for Luke.

I think that the mass-production thing is another "we won't know till we get there" It depends on how many elements are in each array, and how many arrays I make. If this was implemented, then it would be possible to have all the ships in my fleet use the same elements in different numbers.

The enemy gets vote too -- knowing you are relying on a single phased array, he would certainly attack you from as many angles as he could, and take his chances with your other defensive systems, whatever they were.
Now it starts to make sense. I was assuming deep-space warfare, while you expected orbial warfare. In that case, you have a point.

I don't see how it could be good at all jobs. Fire control and search/detection have mutually exclusive requirements, no matter what frequency range you are operating in.
Optics size covers a multitude of sins. It wouldn't be anywhere near as good as a dedicated array of the given size, but the fact that even if it's only 50% as effective, it still covers the entire front of the ship. I doubt you can get a dedicated system of half the size fitted as well.

Tony said...

Byron:

"I'm honestly not totally convinced on this subject, and I may drop this debate at any time. It seemed like an interesting idea to try."

I'm just playing devil's advocate. If you're thinking, yeah, well, so what's new? please understand that a lot of the software design work that I do involves imagining the user as an adversary trying to screw your system up, and figuring out ways that he could do that. So I tend to look for holes in system proposals, rather than finding reasons to say, hey, that's great. I presume any benefits will be fully imagined by others without my help.

"And it's impossible for the array to keep working with one element taken out? Even then, my statement stands."

Phased array antennas tend to be not much larger than rotating radar antennas. Anything that can take out a rotating antenna can put the array out of action. Even if some elements remain hooked up to the control and power systems, mechanical disruption of those elements would probably occur, severely degrading precision.

"I'm not sure that either of us is qualified to comment on the exact properties of phased-array lasers. Even then, electrochemical is likely to be faster and not much if any less precise then mechanical systems. This is a question for Luke."

I don't think anybody is particulary qualified to comment on specifics of systems decades or hundreds of years in the future. I'm just saying that expectations of "instant" execution of orders is overly optimistic.

"I think that the mass-production thing is another "we won't know till we get there" It depends on how many elements are in each array, and how many arrays I make. If this was implemented, then it would be possible to have all the ships in my fleet use the same elements in different numbers."

My point is that you don't mass produce high precision military systems. They're relatively low run bespoke products. They'll cost ya, no matter how you produce certain common components. And if your common components are really high precision, one may not be able to mass produce those either, in the Detroit or Yokohama sense of mass production. YOu may make a lot of them, but in a lab, one component at a time.

"Optics size covers a multitude of sins. It wouldn't be anywhere near as good as a dedicated array of the given size, but the fact that even if it's only 50% as effective, it still covers the entire front of the ship. I doubt you can get a dedicated system of half the size fitted as well."

I'll have to remain skeptical.

Byron said...

Tony:
Phased array antennas tend to be not much larger than rotating radar antennas. Anything that can take out a rotating antenna can put the array out of action. Even if some elements remain hooked up to the control and power systems, mechanical disruption of those elements would probably occur, severely degrading precision.
I'm proposing a phased array on the order of 10 meters across. That's larger than most radar arrays, including the AN/SPY-1.

I don't think anybody is particulary qualified to comment on specifics of systems decades or hundreds of years in the future. I'm just saying that expectations of "instant" execution of orders is overly optimistic.
Instant comes in multiple grades. If a mirror laser steers at 1 degree/second (or even 10) and the phased array steers anywhere in it's arc within 1/100th of a second, it's close enough for government work.

I'll have to remain skeptical.
Then I'll try to enlighten you. I do understand that specialized systems are more effective, but let's do a basic thought experiment.
My phased array fulfills all 4 functions. It's 50% as effective as a main laser of the same mass, and 50% as effective as a PD system of the same mass. The Ladar mode is 30%, and the telescope is 20%. How much mass would I need in specialized systems to match it? 150%. The above numbers are rather conservative, IMO. Anyway, it could go either way, but for a GP vessel, phased arrays might be the way to go.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I can be used that way, for fire control. But you have to also to have a wide angle search system to detect and identify targets.

-----------

Why? Just pick your target using an IR sensor and then point the telescope mirror at it.

The whole idea is to make this system have some insane range, which means all your targets are going to be in a narrow cone.

1/2 or 1 light second is an insane range in non-torchship levels of performance.

If instead your are fighting at say 10,000 km you dont really need a laser. You dont even really need missiles. You can design guns with projectiles than will have less than 2 seconds flight time.

If you are fighting at Battlestar Galactica or Star Wars ranges, you are better off with a modern machine gun.

(SA Phil)

Tony said...

Byron:

"I'm proposing a phased array on the order of 10 meters across. That's larger than most radar arrays, including the AN/SPY-1."

This phased array has superior utility in what role? A microparticle attack sufficiently powerful/dense enough to destroy a monolithic mirror but not powerful/dense enough to destroy an array, right? IMO, that's a pretty narrow band of performance on which to base a major design decision.

"Instant comes in multiple grades. If a mirror laser steers at 1 degree/second (or even 10) and the phased array steers anywhere in it's arc within 1/100th of a second, it's close enough for government work."

How fast does your fire control sensor steer? That's going to be your limiting factor with any kind of laser used as a telescope.

"My phased array fulfills all 4 functions. It's 50% as effective as a main laser of the same mass, and 50% as effective as a PD system of the same mass. The Ladar mode is 30%, and the telescope is 20%. How much mass would I need in specialized systems to match it? 150%. The above numbers are rather conservative, IMO. Anyway, it could go either way, but for a GP vessel, phased arrays might be the way to go."

In any kind of vessel I'd pay the price for 100% practical capability in all weaopons and sensor systems.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"The whole idea is to make this system have some insane range, which means all your targets are going to be in a narrow cone."

The whole idea is to get as much energy into each shot as possible. The effective range is a function of several independent variables. The old list of laser limitations from AR is actually a pretty good rundown:

•Uncertain target location due to finite sensor resolution
•Uncertain target motion due to sensor glint or shape effects
•Sensor boresight error due to finite manufacturing tolerances
•Target motion during sensor integration time
•Analog-to-digital conversion errors of sensor data
•Software errors in fire control system
•Hardware errors in fire control system
•Digital-to-analog conversion errors of gunlaying servo commands
•Target motion during weapon aiming time
•Weapon boresight error due to finite manufacturing tolerances
•Weapon structural distortion due to inertial effects of rapid slew
•Weapon structural distortion due to external or internal vibration
•Weapon structural distortion due to thermal expansion during firing

Byron said...

Tony:
In any kind of vessel I'd pay the price for 100% practical capability in all weaopons and sensor systems.
What is that supposed to mean? The percentages were the mass required to get similar capability in a specialist system. It was to demonstrate that the phased array could prove superior to specialized systems in the same way that a multi-mode radar is better than several single-mode systems.

This phased array has superior utility in what role? A microparticle attack sufficiently powerful/dense enough to destroy a monolithic mirror but not powerful/dense enough to destroy an array, right? IMO, that's a pretty narrow band of performance on which to base a major design decision.
No, the idea was to see what would happen if I replaced the main mirror on a laserstar with a phased-array laser, taking into account the superior versatility of the phased array. It seems another case of not enoungh information.

How fast does your fire control sensor steer? That's going to be your limiting factor with any kind of laser used as a telescope.
The array should steer optically just as fast as it does as a laser. It's inferometric, which means that it's done in the software. Even if it doesn't, there would be multiple pointer telescopes. It's certainly not going to be slower than a normal mirror at very least.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Without some comparitively insane range.. Purple loses to Green.

(or the other way around, Lasers lose)

The range plus the Lightspeed nature is what makes it so effective.

At some point your Mirror slew speed is no longer important.

Tony said...

Byron:

"What is that supposed to mean? The percentages were the mass required to get similar capability in a specialist system. It was to demonstrate that the phased array could prove superior to specialized systems in the same way that a multi-mode radar is better than several single-mode systems."

It means that If I can have 100% of X, that's what I want. If it masses more, I'll find a way to afford the mass. I don't buy into false economies, only enforced ones.

As for the superiority of multimode radars, you should take a look at pictured of modern ships with multimode phased array installations. About the best installations are on US ships, where they at least split the array installations in two between opposite ends of the superstructure. Other designs have all four arrays mounted on a single pedestal where a single hit could concievably neutralize all of them.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"The range plus the Lightspeed nature is what makes it so effective."

That's not sufficiently accurate. The range plus lightspeed nature has significant utility, if you can effectively aim the beam.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

If I cant, then I don't have a Laserstar.

And then this thread becomes "Further Reflections on (blank)"

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"If I cant, then I don't have a Laserstar."

Now we're getting somehwere.

"And then this thread becomes 'Further Reflections on (blank)'"

Non sequitur. Neat in theory, but problematic in practice is a valid conclusion upon reflection. If I asked for "Further Reflections on Dueling with Pistols at 400 Meters", I would be silly to expect everyone to agree that it was practical, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if some people didn't try to think of ways to make it work.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

non sequitur?

I disagree --

*Rick* - Lets talk about Laserstars again.
*Tony*- Laserstars will never work
*Others* - Well what if they did work, what would it mean?
*Tony*- Laserstars will never work

In fact if anything your constant objections are the non sequitur.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

Okay so lets look at this list. This list isnt really the just the Laserstar's limitations, this list is the Laserstar's Design requirements.

----------
•Analog-to-digital conversion errors of sensor data
•Digital-to-analog conversion errors of gunlaying servo commands
-----------
You obviously wont be using a 1024 or 2048 A/D converters for this. Nor 0-5 volt sensors and actuators. Your multimillion dollar Laser will need a million dollar A/D system (or A/A system if necessary to meet the requirements)

===============
•Uncertain target location due to finite sensor resolution
•Uncertain target motion due to sensor glint or shape effects
•Sensor boresight error due to finite manufacturing tolerances

So Our sensor is the Mirror .. and the A/D is part of our sensor control. It all is tied together. You need a mirror large enough to get the sensor resolution you need to work with your large mirror. So its a chicken and egg deal. You design in the sensor resolution and characteristics needed to meet your requirements (unless you exceed your ability to meet those requirements.)

================
•Target motion during sensor integration time
•Software errors in fire control system
•Hardware errors in fire control system
•Target motion during weapon aiming time
==================
These are pretty much related as well. You need to design in a capacity to hit a moving target. That is a given. How well it works probably depends on how much you put into that system (again up until you hit the practical wall)

==================
•Weapon structural distortion due to inertial effects of rapid slew
•Weapon structural distortion due to external or internal vibration
•Weapon structural distortion due to thermal expansion during firing
====================
Vibration and slew will need to be compensated for. That will also be a design consideration. Again it will be a money/effort/time vs practical limits thing.

Thermal expansion should be predictable, you could compensate for it, etc.

=======================
•Weapon boresight error due to finite manufacturing tolerances
===============

This one is interesting, wouldnt this always exist? If so doesnt the real limit become your ability to measure and adjust to said error.

Simple example:
If it always hits the mirror 1mm to the left due to machining tolerances, you need to adjust the targetting 1mm to the right.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"non sequitur?

I disagree --

*Rick* - Lets talk about Laserstars again.
*Tony*- Laserstars will never work
*Others* - Well what if they did work, what would it mean?
*Tony*- Laserstars will never work

In fact if anything your constant objections are the non sequitur."


Talking about any speculative technology includes talking about why it might or might not work. Declaring by fiat that it will work is an artificial constraint.

"Okay so lets look at this list. This list isnt really the just the Laserstar's limitations, this list is the Laserstar's Design requirements."

IMO, that's inaccurate. They describe the practical limits on specifying and achieving design requirements.

"You obviously wont be using a 1024 or 2048 A/D converters...

..."


In all of the above you're confusing constraint with requirement. A requirement is a concrete performance target. The list is an enumeration of constraints on specifying and achieving requirements.

"[Weapon boresight error due to finite manufacturing tolerances] is interesting, wouldnt this always exist? If so doesnt the real limit become your ability to measure and adjust to said error.

Simple example:
If it always hits the mirror 1mm to the left due to machining tolerances, you need to adjust the targetting 1mm to the right."


Your real limit is your precision in measuring error. Simple Example:

With modern mortars, 1 mil is generally considered acceptable pointing error. That means that if you're shooting at a target 5000 m from the gun, you're willing to accept a miss of 5 meters from the nominal impact point. Since this is well inside the effective caualty radius of either th 81 mm or 120 mm HE projectile, no sweat. So all of the instruments used in mortar boresighting and gun laying are adjustable in 1 mil increments.

Going back to your laser example, saying you are making a boresight adjustment of "1mm" is announcing that fractions of a millimeter are below you level of interest where precision is concerned. But of course they probably aren't if you're trying to hit targets tens of thousands of kilometers away. Maybe your nominal boresight adjustment is 1.000003 mm. That means that you'll accept an error that amounts to no more than .000001 mm in either direction.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

The target of the laser isnt 10's of KM away ..

The Target is an image on the mirror.

Just like a bank shot in pool.

Its the mirror that needs to be aimed at the far-away target - which is convienent because to do that you need a large mirror.

--------

I see that list as a list of requirements without specifications. Since we are not dealing with any current technology that is probably specific enough already. You would need to minimize all those negative things *and* you would design a system that takes into acount all of those variables.

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"The target of the laser isnt 10's of KM away ..

The Target is an image on the mirror.

Just like a bank shot in pool.

Its the mirror that needs to be aimed at the far-away target - which is convienent because to do that you need a large mirror."


Whatever and wherever the target is, your acceptable boresight error isn't about whether the sensor and the weapon are aligned when baseline settings are applied. Your acceptable boresight error is the amount of precision you can achieve in making the necessary adjustments to any detected misalignments.

Suppose you have a boresight target mounted 100 m from the weapon mirror. Also suppose that when both your fire control sensor and weapon mirror are aligned on nominal center, and the boresight target is centered on the fire control sensor's detector, the target image on your weapon mirror is displaced 1 mm from center. (If you're shooting through the same optics train, you boresight on the same target; if the weapon and sensor are separated some distance in space, then your boresight target plate has a sensor target and a weapon target, separated to the same level of precision required by your boresighting requirements.) You then make adjustments on the weapon mirror to move the image 1 mm nominal back towards the center. That means you are willing to accept some fraction of a mm error in that "1 mm" adjustment. Say it's half a millimeter to either side of the mirror center. That means you are willing to accept an error of 5 mm per km of range to the target. At 10000 km, that means you find an error of 50 m acceptable.

Now, it's highly unlikely that you do find such an error acceptable, so your nominal boresight adjustment is given -- and applied -- in much smaller increments. I chose nanometers because it seems like a much more acceptable level of precision when doing boresighting at 100 meters but shooting at tens of millions of meters. But, realistically, we would probably use micrometers as an acceptable level of boresighting precision. An error of one micrometer at 100 m translates to an error of only 1 mm at 10000 km.

"I see that list as a list of requirements without specifications. Since we are not dealing with any current technology that is probably specific enough already. You would need to minimize all those negative things *and* you would design a system that takes into acount all of those variables."

I'm really not seeing your point. The list is a list of possible real world, physical error sources, and as such is an enumeration of constraints on translating theory into practice. You simply can't develop a requirement from the simple knowledge that mechanical imprecision will intorduce error. You first figure out what it will take to achieve a nominal result at a nominal range. Then you take your empirical knowledge of the possible sources of error and their magnitude into account. What comes out is a requirement that lists how far off nominal you can acceptable go, based on what is necessary to achieve the mission and what can be done in practical terms.

It is entirely possible that you find out that you can't achieve nominal performance because some error source or set of error sources keeps you from applying the necessary levels of precision. This is why an error source can't be a requirement. It can only be a constraint.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

IF you are designing a piece of hardware and you have a whole lot of things that can effect how that hardware will perform.

You need to have "features" (term we use here) to minimize or remove the negative effect.

That list becomes requirements.

For example your boresight error. If it needs to be total system of 1mm at 100,000km then you need to make the necessary accomidations.

If it turns out you can only get 3cm at 100,000km you will have to revise the requirements.

Every time you design something there is usually a huge long list of things the planners/managers want. Those are turned into requirements.

It doesn't really become a design "contraint" until you can't meet the intitial requirement.

----
The 1 light second laser doesnt become impossible until you can't meet the resulting requirements.

Tony said...

Sigh...

Sources of error can't be directly converted into requirements. They can inform requirements development, as in you can't set a requirement to a level of precision above which you can practically elminiate a source of error. It's simple enough:

Nominal required performance: no more than .000001 mil pointing error

Source of error: slop in a gear train

Magnitude of error: .00001 mil at the output end

Adjusted requirement: .00001 mil pointing error

See, you set your initial requirements based on what you'd like to see the system do, without refernece to what is practically achievable. (These are sometimes called performance targets.) Then you match those requirements to what you can achieve in reality. If your real physical errors invalidate your requirements, you adjust your requirements to match reality. That's why sources of error are constraints, not requirements -- they constrain what you can do.

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

I already mentioned the scenario where a requirement might be impossible to achieve. Maybe you missed that part.

----------------
-------------
Tony's example:

Nominal required performance: no more than .000001 mil pointing error

Source of error: slop in a gear train

Magnitude of error: .00001 mil at the output end

Adjusted requirement: .00001 mil pointing error
---------------
------------------

The next question is left unanswered. Use a different gear train? Use a different mechanism other than a gear train?

You don't just automatically accept Issues in your design. Unless there is nothing you can do about them (within budget, timing, technology. etc)

Anonymous said...

Tony,

Sources of error can't be directly converted into requirements.

============

Not only can they be - they have to be!

You dont just say "oh well I'll have to live with this." before you even get into the process.

(SA Phil)

Anonymous said...

SA Phil:

"I already mentioned the scenario where a requirement might be impossible to achieve. Maybe you missed that part."

I saw it. But it's not good engineering practice to treat a requirement as something you allow to be invalidated posterior to issue. You do requirements validation prior to issuing them.

"The next question is left unanswered. Use a different gear train? Use a different mechanism other than a gear train?

You don't just automatically accept Issues in your design. Unless there is nothing you can do about them (within budget, timing, technology. etc)"


I used a gear train as a concrete illustration. I was talking about irreducible mechanical error. If it helps you, replace "slop in a gear train" with "irreducible mechanical error". It's still the same point.

"Not only can they be - they have to be!

You dont just say 'oh well I'll have to live with this.' before you even get into the process."


As alluded to above, all of that stuff comes out (or should come out) in requirements validation. Requirements validation is the point in the engineering process where you take your initial requirements and subject them to analysis based on your technical, operational, and economic constraints. Whatever comes out of that -- usually some combination of deleted, updated, and added requirements -- is your final requirements list.

It should be obvious from the description above that constraints and requirements are not the same thing.

Anonymous said...

Tony,

As alluded to above, all of that stuff comes out (or should come out) in requirements validation. Requirements validation is the point in the engineering process where you take your initial requirements and subject them to analysis based on your technical, operational, and economic constraints.

==============

hahahaha!

Thats a good one. Wait. Still laughing..

That's not how it works.

Instead it goes like:
*Product Idea Request
*Advanced R&D Determines basic feasibility.
*Planning/Management overestimates true feasibility.
*Planning/Management Sets Requirements
*Attempt to meet requirements
*Discover in dribs and drabs that you wont be able to meet half of them with what you are allowed to use.
*Try to get management to accept that this will happen.
*When they dont accept it go back and attempt to alter reality.
*Suffer the inevitable timing slip.
*Have management play with the numbers to make it look like they not only can be met but are exceeding requirements.
*Finally come up with a compromise that "works".


So in the 1 LS laser example (assuming it was feasible), if they were developing it in "the current real world" They probably would design it to be accurate to 1 LS, but instead only get 1/2 LS reliably.

Years down the road they would get it to 1 LS .. right before the program was due to end.

Hopefully in the future its more like your textbook example. I'd like to think it will be much superior to today's world. As I alluded to in the computer aided design speculation.

But unless you are "Management" or work in some weird Nirvana Segment/Industry you are sugar coating things in your discription above.

(SA Phil)

Tony said...

SA Phil:

"But unless you are "Management" or work in some weird Nirvana Segment/Industry you are sugar coating things in your discription above."

You know, while I was writing my description of the requirements development process, I was reflecting on how it's never actually followed. In my small shop niche of the software industry, for example, some member of the ownership team dreams up (or more often desires to copy) some capability, sloppily and cursorily outlines it to a programmer, and the programmer develops and develops until some semblance of the capability is deployed.

With software you can do that. Not so much with hardware. At some point you have to stop killing trees and pushing electrons around and actually bend metal or mold plastic. So you get the development process you described, which is a balance of business imperatives and engineering reality.

In defense development work you actually do get something recognizably like the theoretical process. The customer (i.e. government) puts out a list of target requirements and asks for prototypes. The contractors turn in their prototypes and the government works them out to see how close to the requirements they actually come. Sometimes the government picks a prototype, asks for (generally reasonable) mods, and buys the result. Sometimes the government takes the test results and develops a new spec, reflecting some combination of capabilities that the portotypes demonstrated and puts an RFP out for bid. In any case, the final revised requirement set is validated empiracally by testing answers to the requirements against their own limitations.

Getting back to the difference between constraints and requirements, the taxonomy is something like this, even if only in theory:

Initial requirement: what you think you ought to be able to do

Constraint: some physical, economic, or operational reality that keeps you from achieving one or more of your initial requirement

Revised requirement: what you can reasonably require of the system given your constraints

Byron said...

Sorry for reviving the thread, but I have no better place to put this stuff.
I've uploaded several of my spreadsheets to google docs.
BracCalc is a spreadsheet designed to calculate rocket motion with fuel burn. It requires solver for some features.
BattleTrack 3.2 is obviously designed to allow you to track space battles. It works with ships built in Shipbuilder 2.2.
BattleTrack 2.4 is a version that doesn't require a pre-built ship. It lacks some functionality, but is good for simpler scenarios.
All of these require macros enabled to work.

On a totally different note, we've never discussed habitation requirements for miligee accelerations. It seems to be in some ways miligee is the worst of both worlds. You can't use normal plumbing at 1 cm/s2, but I also expect there to be a fairly sharp down. You can't hang yourself on a random bulkhead and go to sleep, or ignore the need for supports while you work. Just some thoughts.

Tony said...

Byron:

"On a totally different note, we've never discussed habitation requirements for miligee accelerations. It seems to be in some ways miligee is the worst of both worlds. You can't use normal plumbing at 1 cm/s2, but I also expect there to be a fairly sharp down. You can't hang yourself on a random bulkhead and go to sleep, or ignore the need for supports while you work. Just some thoughts."

The plumbing is a problem, but I think sleeping could still be done parallel to the acceleration vector. At a 5 milligee acceleration, a 100 kg person still only weighs a little over a pound. Hanging from a broad chest strap should be plenty comfortable enough. The same applies to anchoring at a workstation -- just a simple belt strap affixed to a light eye on the front of a panel should be enough.

Byron said...

Tony:
At a 5 milligee acceleration, a 100 kg person still only weighs a little over a pound. Hanging from a broad chest strap should be plenty comfortable enough. The same applies to anchoring at a workstation -- just a simple belt strap affixed to a light eye on the front of a panel should be enough.
I'm not saying that we couldn't work around it, but you will lose the flexibility of zero-G. For example, storage will have to be done in a conventional manner, not strapping everything to a convenient bulkhead. Nor could you fly like you do now. It'd be possible to jump quite far, but you would still "fall". It might be easier to get used to then free-fall, though.
I'd guess that true microgravity comes when things like air currents are greater than external acceleration.

Tony said...

Byron:

"I'm not saying that we couldn't work around it, but you will lose the flexibility of zero-G. For example, storage will have to be done in a conventional manner, not strapping everything to a convenient bulkhead."

Why not? A 5 lb laptop in a .005 g field weighs less than half an ounce. You can suspend it from the ceiling with a piece of nylon cord similar to that used to secure thumb drives to people's keychains. Even if you left it hanging in the air 2 m above the deck, it won't even be going half a meter a second when it touches down nine seoncd later -- and that's not taking air resistance into account. Yes, everything left unattended wouldtend to collect against one identifiable deck or any flat surfaces parallel with it, but milligee fields are still not all that big a deal.

Byron said...

Tony:
Why not? A 5 lb laptop in a .005 g field weighs less than half an ounce. You can suspend it from the ceiling with a piece of nylon cord similar to that used to secure thumb drives to people's keychains. Even if you left it hanging in the air 2 m above the deck, it won't even be going half a meter a second when it touches down nine seoncd later -- and that's not taking air resistance into account. Yes, everything left unattended wouldtend to collect against one identifiable deck or any flat surfaces parallel with it, but milligee fields are still not all that big a deal.
First, a request. Please stop mixing English and Metric units. Sorry, I'm sort of OCD about that.
Second, a laptop might work. However, I was thinking about things like shelving. I wouldn't want to mount, say, a tool box overhead, because everything would fall out. It seems easier to put stuff in a relatively conventional arrangement. You can get away with a smaller space than you might think, anyway.
I'm going to try really hard not to let this become one of our usual shouting matches. It was something I wanted to throw out.

jollyreaper said...

First, a request. Please stop mixing English and Metric units. Sorry, I'm sort of OCD about that.

And I insist on using foot-grams a fortnight.

Byron said...

And I insist on using foot-grams a fortnight.
If this keeps up, I'll switch to Planck units.
To quote a friend of mine:
"Oh, no. I got a velocity greater than 1."

Tony said...

Byron:

"First, a request. Please stop mixing English and Metric units. Sorry, I'm sort of OCD about that."

When I went to school, we were strictly enjoined that metric units are to be used for mass and English for weight. (Because mass doesn't change, but weight varies with gravity/acceleration field.) In that respect, you should have corrected me for using 5 lb for the laptop mass, instead of 2.3 kg. ;-)

"Second, a laptop might work. However, I was thinking about things like shelving. I wouldn't want to mount, say, a tool box overhead, because everything would fall out."

I don't see a real problem, because astronauts/cosmonauts tend to orient everything in the same directionwithin a workspace, as if they were in a g field.

"I'm going to try really hard not to let this become one of our usual shouting matches. It was something I wanted to throw out."

It doesn't have to be a match of any kind. It's just my opinion that you're exagerating the difficulties of a milligee environment.

Byron said...

Tony:
I don't see a real problem, because astronauts/cosmonauts tend to orient everything in the same directionwithin a workspace, as if they were in a g field.
Yes, but they can orient those workspaces however they want. It's entirely possible to have two people working side-by-side, but upside down relative to each other. I don't see that as plausible in a miligee environment. You won't want to work on the ceiling if you can help it, and it's almost certain that there will be a floor. While an individual workspace might be the same, I only have half as much surface area to play with.
And then there's the problem of a spinning hab with a drive. I don't even want to go there.

When I went to school, we were strictly enjoined that metric units are to be used for mass and English for weight. (Because mass doesn't change, but weight varies with gravity/acceleration field.) In that respect, you should have corrected me for using 5 lb for the laptop mass, instead of 2.3 kg. ;-)
That just seems like you're asking for a mess of conversion errors and a general headache.

It doesn't have to be a match of any kind. It's just my opinion that you're exagerating the difficulties of a milligee environment.
Sadly, we won't know for a long time. As I said, just something that hasn't been brought up.

Tony said...

Byron:

"Yes, but they can orient those workspaces however they want. It's entirely possible to have two people working side-by-side, but upside down relative to each other. I don't see that as plausible in a miligee environment. You won't want to work on the ceiling if you can help it, and it's almost certain that there will be a floor. While an individual workspace might be the same, I only have half as much surface area to play with."

I'm really not seing the problem. Hab spaces aren't going to be all that big to begin with. And within spaces that are not likely to be more than maybe three meters in height or width, in a .005 g field, all surfaces are still going to be useful.

"And then there's the problem of a spinning hab with a drive. I don't even want to go there."

Somebody will have to, and I'm sure it's not going to be much more of a hassle than a spinning hab with no competing acceleration vector. I would think for anything above .25 g at the outer rim, the biggest problem in a spinning hab would be Coriolis effect.

"That just seems like you're asking for a mess of conversion errors and a general headache."

Not really. Weights are generally used in different dynamic contexts than masses. In a constant g field, weights don't vary. Also, in a steady g field, weight is generally important than mass for everyday engineering calculations. It's when you start talking about varying levels of acceleration that mass and weight become sticky.

"Sadly, we won't know for a long time. As I said, just something that hasn't been brought up."

Why sadly? We'll know when we know. But we can certainly discuss the likely outcomes in friendly manner, even if we don't agree on them.

Thucydides said...

The most likely work around for miligee habs is to coat everything with velcro or something similar and stick them to corresponding patches on various work surfaces. Velcro comes in all kinds of "stickiness", including industrial strength stuff that cannot be unfastened once bonded. (at least not by any astronaut using their own strength or ordinary hand tools). Post It notes represent another approach, especially if you are not keen on velcro patches everywhere. 3M probably has adhesives of various stickiness in the catalogue.

But why put up with that in the first place? There is no reason that the hab itself cannot be rotated to provide "gravity". Mars Direct had the hab swinging on the end of a long tether attached to the expended insertion stage, and similar solutions can be applied to space stations or other deep space missions. For some speculations I modeled a basic spacecraft design which resembled an umbrella. Under acceleration the structure is "folded", while coasting the "umbrella" is opened. The habs on the end of the struts are oriented so the "floor" stays in the same orientation, regardless if "forward is up" or "outboard is down". The center compression structure houses the engine, power machinery and fuel tanks, and any other things I might want to add.

Byron said...

Tony:
I'm really not seing the problem. Hab spaces aren't going to be all that big to begin with. And within spaces that are not likely to be more than maybe three meters in height or width, in a .005 g field, all surfaces are still going to be useful.
Somewhat. I've decided that you're probably right on berthing, and just about anything can be done "standing up". I'm far less sure about working on the ceiling. I'm not saying that stuff won't go there, but you won't be able to use it in place. Things like fire extinguishers, hull patches, or bulk food might be good choices.
Actually, a lot of it depends on how people translate in miligee environments. Do they glide? Do they walk? Or is it something else? That will have a lot to do with how stuff is laid out.

Somebody will have to, and I'm sure it's not going to be much more of a hassle than a spinning hab with no competing acceleration vector. I would think for anything above .25 g at the outer rim, the biggest problem in a spinning hab would be Coriolis effect.
I'm not so sure. You do have that extra vector, which might be annoying. Or not. Also, structural design of the hab will be more fun.

Why sadly? We'll know when we know. But we can certainly discuss the likely outcomes in friendly manner, even if we don't agree on them.
Sadly is because I probably won't get to go and see it. And I was hoping to avoid a repeat of the "Drone Wars" which seems to be the case so far.

Thucydides:
The velcro idea is interesting, and would probably work for objects. I'm not terribly sure about humans.

But why put up with that in the first place? There is no reason that the hab itself cannot be rotated to provide "gravity". Mars Direct had the hab swinging on the end of a long tether attached to the expended insertion stage, and similar solutions can be applied to space stations or other deep space missions. For some speculations I modeled a basic spacecraft design which resembled an umbrella. Under acceleration the structure is "folded", while coasting the "umbrella" is opened. The habs on the end of the struts are oriented so the "floor" stays in the same orientation, regardless if "forward is up" or "outboard is down". The center compression structure houses the engine, power machinery and fuel tanks, and any other things I might want to add.
The umbrella seems better for a ship that has a high-acceleration drive. You could alter the angle for miligee drives, though. And I'm skeptical of Mars Direct designs for a warship. Actually, I'm skeptical of Mars Direct in general, but that's another topic.

Anonymous said...

Tony,

Initial requirement: what you think you ought to be able to do

Constraint: some physical, economic, or operational reality that keeps you from achieving one or more of your initial requirement

Revised requirement: what you can reasonably require of the system given your constraints

========

Agreed.

Although you can be "in production" before all the involved people realize the last one happened.

(SA Phil)

Anonymous said...

Tony,

In defense development work you actually do get something recognizably like the theoretical process. The customer (i.e. government) puts out a list of target requirements and asks for prototypes. The contractors turn in their prototypes and the government works them out to see how close to the requirements they actually come.

=========

In defense they actually make a lot of compromises to reality too.

Examples:

The original Willys Jeep came in overwieght but they fudged the test since it was better in most other catagories.

The Longbeach was originally only supposed to be a 5000 ton ship.

The most egregious probably was the Sgt York which they faked some of the Testing to cover up some serious design blunders.
------------

With vehicles you tend to get a lot of bending of reality to account for fuel consumption, weight and performance.

With Weapons I imagine the bending is in accuracy, effective range, and projected costs.

(SA Phil)

Anonymous said...

(SA Phil)

In over 15 years of Development work in a couple of Industries,

I have never worked on a project that did not mix Standard and Metric units without rhyme nor reason.

It is annoying.

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