tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post4702880580914515432..comments2024-03-19T00:19:09.117-07:00Comments on Rocketpunk Manifesto: "She Turned Me Into a Newt! ... (I got better)"Rickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comBlogger90125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-43891539411434941172012-02-14T09:26:11.143-08:002012-02-14T09:26:11.143-08:00Rick:
"But note that two losses - of fairly ...Rick:<br /><br /><i>"But note that two losses - of fairly large crews in both cases - did not actually put an end to the US human spaceflight program."</i><br /><br />Both caused long safety standdowns and considerable reorganization. The basic hardware worked, and subsequent hardware modifications would, in a normal aviation program, have been introduced in continued service. But not with manned spaceflight. Crew losses in that arena cause serious soul-searching. Even the Soviets, at the height of the Cold War, suspended manned spaceflight for over two years after losing Soyuz 11.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-10152834726678811292012-02-13T18:43:22.882-08:002012-02-13T18:43:22.882-08:00But note that two losses - of fairly large crews i...But note that two losses - of fairly large crews in both cases - did not actually put an end to the US human spaceflight program.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-65311712508923792482012-02-12T20:51:55.431-08:002012-02-12T20:51:55.431-08:00Paul, I think that the disconnect between politici...Paul, I think that the disconnect between politicians and the scienists/astronauts when presenting the goals of a space program is what leads to confusion and disgust; politicians want theater and the scienists/astronauts want to explore and do research; but the politicians are the ones holding the purse-strings, so guess whose voice gets heard by the public?<br /><br /><br />FerrellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-84037603900973055012012-02-12T09:25:27.598-08:002012-02-12T09:25:27.598-08:00The argument about the worth of human lives serves...The argument about the worth of human lives serves mainly to illustrate the duplicity of current manned space activity. If it were really worth billions to send people to some destination in space, then putting lives at risk would also be acceptable.<br /><br />But it isn't acceptable, and that's because manned space programs are theater, not activities delivering value via accomplishment of their ostensible goals. Dead celebrity astronauts would ruin the entertainment.Paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-50337566932620237792012-02-06T20:34:42.551-08:002012-02-06T20:34:42.551-08:00Anonymous:
"Tony, I think that the point of ...Anonymous:<br /><br /><i>"Tony, I think that the point of the compition is to determine which one that would be..."</i><br /><br />CCDev has been run with the intention of having two non-NASA manned launch providers qualified for NASA missions. It's not generally the way government programs are operated. They usually compete the vendor choice, but then choose a single vendor in the end. And with space programs, they don't compete at the prototype level. They compete on the basis of designs and vendor capabilities, only bending metal after the vendor is chosen.<br /><br />I know, we have the precedent of EELV, where two launch systems were eventually chosen. But that was for the specific purpose of redundancy in a strategic system. If I had been in charge back in 2003, when the <i>Challenger</i> investigation recommended, I would have extended EELV with a manned spacecraft payload provided by ULA, as a contract extension on EELV.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-85810282853024729112012-02-06T17:33:35.442-08:002012-02-06T17:33:35.442-08:00Tony said:"
Steering more or less back onto t...Tony said:"<br />Steering more or less back onto the topic, we should note that, with NASA and (maybe) Bigelow being the only viable American customers for manned spaceflight anytime soon, the space industry as a whole is probably wasting a lot of money on Comercial Crew Development activities. We simply don't need SpaceX Dragon, Boeing CST-100, and and SpaceDev Dream Chaser crew vehicles. We need one crew vehicle that can be made as inexpensive as possible for a given safety/reliability standard, because it achieves the highest possible rate of production."<br /><br />Tony, I think that the point of the compition is to determine which one that would be...<br /><br />FerrellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-508876930557155392012-02-06T13:40:01.800-08:002012-02-06T13:40:01.800-08:00Steering more or less back onto the topic, we shou...Steering more or less back onto the topic, we should note that, with NASA and (maybe) Bigelow being the only viable American customers for manned spaceflight anytime soon, the space industry as a whole is probably wasting a lot of money on Comercial Crew Development activities. We simply don't need SpaceX Dragon, Boeing CST-100, and and SpaceDev Dream Chaser crew vehicles. We need one crew vehicle that can be made as inexpensive as possible for a given safety/reliability standard, because it achieves the highest possible rate of production.<br /><br />Of course, going that way would not be popular with the commercial space idealists, but it would satisfy practical market conditions.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-15024068139629347162012-02-04T17:10:13.483-08:002012-02-04T17:10:13.483-08:00I notice one incentive based initiative missing fr...I notice one incentive based initiative missing from the tangent on real or presumed AQ terrorists:<br /><br />"Wanted, dead or alive. Reward, X dollars"<br /><br />That ought to send lots of heat their way....Thucydideshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09828932214842106266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-80347397784319103652012-02-04T11:36:16.666-08:002012-02-04T11:36:16.666-08:00On Al-Qaeda: OBM raised a private army and, throug...On Al-Qaeda: OBM raised a private army and, through word and deed, decalered and waged war on the U.S.A U.S. citizen who joins an army that is waging war against the U.S. is guilty of treason; Al-Awlaki never denied he was a member of Al-Qaeda. As a de facto officer in said army, the rules of war permit his being killed by whatever means.<br /><br />On private space programs; the main draw of these kinds of contests aren't the prizes' stated goal in and of itself, but the fact that winning the prize will (in theory) lead to big sales of the winning design (or derivatives thereof), perhaps even by some that may not have considered it before. Overcoming the difficulties of obtaining that goal is what stimulates innovation, no matter what the contest is.<br /><br />FerrellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-28873880774818172152012-02-04T10:56:49.005-08:002012-02-04T10:56:49.005-08:00=Milo=
Rick:
"One way or the other, withi...=Milo=<br /><br /><br /><br />Rick:<br /><br /><i>"One way or the other, within a few years crow will be on the menu here. The important unanswered question being who will be serving it up and who will be dining on it. :-D"</i><br /><br />Who cares? I just feel sorry for the crow. :(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-35831870970273356432012-02-04T08:08:06.484-08:002012-02-04T08:08:06.484-08:00Damien Sullivan:
"Not to draw out the tangen...Damien Sullivan:<br /><br /><i>"Not to draw out the tangent too much longer, but while indictments might be cheap, public trials aren't. If he'd surrendered for trial, well, he'd be alive and we wouldn't be having this conversation. Instead he's dead. And while I understand not wanting to rush to judgement without information, one side here resulted in the death by executive order of a US citizen, who was not a member of a country we were at war with, or even organization I think (Al-Qaeda of Yemen isn't the same organization as Al-Qaeda). I feel some prejudice (pre-judgement) is called for here."</i><br /><br />1. War isn't the sole domain of nation states. Even the formal war conventions between nation states recognizes that. It can be conducted by any entity that can conduct it.<br /><br />2. Al Qaeda has never been a formal, membership-based organization. If you say you're al Qaeda, and pursue al Qaeda's goals, you're al Qaeda.<br /><br />3. Al-Awlaki was fingered by several different terrorist suspects who had been apprehended for prior to executing planned terrorist attacks.<br /><br />4. US citizens, resident aliens, and non-citizens all deserve and receive the protections of US laws <i>while in the the US or its territories</i>. But when you leave the country and join an organization at war with the US? Then you assume a leadership role? Nobody has the right to expect any better treatment than any other leader of the organization should expect.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-12557085167354398772012-02-03T23:59:25.906-08:002012-02-03T23:59:25.906-08:00Not to draw out the tangent too much longer, but w...Not to draw out the tangent too much longer, but while indictments might be cheap, public trials aren't. If he'd surrendered for trial, well, he'd be alive and we wouldn't be having this conversation. Instead he's dead. And while I understand not wanting to rush to judgement without information, one side here resulted in the death by executive order of a US citizen, who was not a member of a country we were at war with, or even organization I think (Al-Qaeda of Yemen isn't the same organization as Al-Qaeda). I feel some prejudice (pre-judgement) is called for here.Damien Sullivanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13321329197063620556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-24120653596437847012012-02-03T20:17:54.661-08:002012-02-03T20:17:54.661-08:00Dammit, I forgot to finish the point I wanted to m...Dammit, I forgot to finish the point I wanted to make about 'private space.' It seems that the whole matter is getting a pretty fair field test, with real money behind it.<br /><br />One way or the other, within a few years crow will be on the menu here. The important unanswered question being who will be serving it up and who will be dining on it. :-DRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-77288429926124285902012-02-03T20:15:25.426-08:002012-02-03T20:15:25.426-08:00I sort of hate even getting into al-Awlaki type of...I sort of hate even getting into al-Awlaki type of thing, but I have no one to blame but myself, and it is relevant to the future of conflict.<br /><br />And I admit that I have done no 'due diligence' in parsing through claims on either side, neither of which has an automatic claim to be believed. <br /><br /><i>So, we have something for conflicts like that, "due process". if he'd been indicted, then there'd be a formal chance for him to 'come in from the cold' for trial, and if he didn't, well.</i><br /><br />I dunno, that could be taken as even more cynical, given the truism that prosecutors can indict a ham sandwich. There are slippery slopes and slippery slopes, and this one doesn't seem all that close to the precipice.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-37670275340924622662012-02-03T20:05:57.298-08:002012-02-03T20:05:57.298-08:00Re the X-prize, also remember that 'getting in...Re the X-prize, also remember that 'getting into space' in the sense of a suborbital flight is <i>far</i> less demanding than getting into orbit.<br /><br />Also agree with Tony that the era of aviation prizes was an era when aviation technology was basically souped up automotive technology, and anyone with a well equipped garage could jump in.<br /><br />My impression is that things changed roughly when 'modern' planes started to appear (aluminum rather than wood, fabric, and wire; power upwards of 1000 hp; etc.). A performance level that required far greater resources to play.<br /><br />Now, in fairness to the private space fans, outfits like SpaceX are in a different league than the private efforts of the 80s and 90s era. <br /><br />But as Tony has noted, SpaceX has taken a very conservative engineering approach - just the opposite of what used to be touted as revolutionary.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-30966546291837003512012-02-03T18:26:17.184-08:002012-02-03T18:26:17.184-08:00But the point is that people are not spending bill...But the point is that people are <i>not</i> spending billions of dollars to win these prizes. They may be hoping to get billions of dollars by selling or licensing their successful entries, but they are only using such resources are available to them.<br /><br />Anyway, it seems the prize meme is becoming quite popular, from Forbes:<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow">http://www.forbes.com/sites/briancaulfield/2012/01/26/peter-diamandis-rocket-man/</a><br /><br /><i>Diamandis has throw weight. A Harvard M.D. who never practiced, he has keen interests in space and ocean exploration, genomics and the Internet, telecom and artificial intelligence, hyperfast electric cars and epic environmental disasters. He knows just about everyone in these fields and has persuaded half of them to become a trustee or big backer of his X Prize Foundation: The Ansari family funded the original prize, a private spaceflight vehicle; Google’s Larry Page and Sergey Brin raised $30 million to put a robot on the moon; Bill and Melinda Gates are sponsoring a better device to detect tuberculosis; Qualcomm’s Jacobs is helping turn Dr. McCoy’s everything machine into reality. Diamandis also has leads on some of tomorrow’s promising entrepreneurs via Singularity University, a boot camp for startups he launched with futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil. </i>Thucydideshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09828932214842106266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-74825590077298167162012-02-03T08:13:55.277-08:002012-02-03T08:13:55.277-08:00Thucydides:
You're ignoring the issue of scal...Thucydides:<br /><br />You're ignoring the issue of scale. Rutan could get the $25 million his effort used up by going to Paul Allen, for whom it was pocket change. Tens or hundreds of billions of dollars is not pocket change, to <i>anybody</i>. Nobody but a govern ment can generate that kind of commitment.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-55257457328276035492012-02-02T16:53:44.480-08:002012-02-02T16:53:44.480-08:00Tony
Rutan and dozens of other companies spent $1...Tony<br /><br />Rutan and dozens of other companies spent $100 million vying for the $10 million X prize, so to suggest only governments have access to the resources needed is a bit premature, to say the least. Given inflation, the amount of money spent by aeronautical pioneers in the early part of the last century was probably similar in proportion.<br /><br />The entire purpose of the prize is to encourage others to spend the time and resources, without putting yourself out. If no one was able to achieve the goal of the X prize, then the foundation would still have the $10 million + interest as a minimum, and could choose to try again at a later date, fund a different competition or disband and distribute the prize money + interest back to the contributors.<br /><br />If the prize is really unwinnable, then that will be sorted out sooner or later, as entrants drop out or potential entrants choose not to apply when they look at the problem. Prizes might also limp along for decades waiting for conditions to change (the challenge of human powered flight was not won for several decades, despite the large prize available, and not for lack of trying).<br /><br />The trick is for the prize foundation to write the criterion carefully enough that the goal is plausible, but without setting the terms and conditions so narrowly that many potential solutions are excluded (or that the prize might be won in a way the prize sponsors don't expect; I believe it was Richard Feynman who posted a prize for an ultra small motor expecting some exotic new technology needed to be invented, but payed out to a guy who used a microscope and tweezers to build the motor instead). <br /><br />Using prize incentives is not the be all and end all, but serves an important niche function, and the fallout of such an event might be beneficial in unexpected manners as well.Thucydideshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09828932214842106266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-27779338735288607362012-02-02T08:54:20.805-08:002012-02-02T08:54:20.805-08:00jollyreaper:
"And would you expect the US g...jollyreaper: <br /><br /><i>"And would you expect the US government to say anything other than 'Trust us; this guy was horrible.' <br /><br />Just a long string of isolated incidents...."</i><br /><br />FWIW, I've got more reason to distrust government motives than you ever could, having been personally involved in questionable military operations myself. <i>Nothing</i> about al-Awlaki smells of questionable justification or procedure.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-10495980634794534082012-02-02T07:19:23.696-08:002012-02-02T07:19:23.696-08:00As far as al-Alwaki's and his family's den...<i><br />As far as al-Alwaki's and his family's denials are concerned, what do you expect somebody in his position to say? </i><br /><br />And would you expect the US government to say anything other than "Trust us; this guy was horrible." <br /><br />Just a long string of isolated incidents....jollyreaperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05673007647719726846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-59628488674166313892012-02-02T03:34:39.542-08:002012-02-02T03:34:39.542-08:00Thucydides:
"Which gets to the chicken and e...Thucydides:<br /><br /><i>"Which gets to the chicken and egg problem again..."</i><br /><br />Sorry, but no. The problem is not motivation. The problem is inherrent physical limitations of the accessible tool set. And that doesn't mean accessible as in not invented yet, it means accessible as in what can be done with physical materials in the real world, in absolute terms.<br /><br />Also, the prize paradigm worked when anybody could make a plane for a few thousand bucks. For programs that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, only the government can put up that kind of money to begin with. And only a government could win a prize that only a government could afford, because with space prizes it has turned out that the prize never covers the total cost of the endeavor.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-24274817432500005612012-02-02T03:28:40.342-08:002012-02-02T03:28:40.342-08:00Geoffrey S H:
"Oh, and they have to be cheap...Geoffrey S H:<br /><br /><i>"Oh, and they have to be cheap too, with any nation being capable of fielding them."</i><br /><br />I would say that only the top four or five industrial nations need be able to manufacture them, but they would have to be priced so that most nations could buy and operate at least a few examples, much like modern airliners.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-23909630038485524592012-02-02T03:25:39.338-08:002012-02-02T03:25:39.338-08:00Re: Damien Sullivan:
WRT to al-Awlaki, AIUI, the ...Re: Damien Sullivan:<br /><br />WRT to al-Awlaki, A<i>I</i>UI, the legal implications were carefully considered, because a US citizen was being targetted. It wasn't changed so much reconsidered in the context of a new kind of target.<br /><br />As far as al-Alwaki's and his family's denials are concerned, what do you expect somebody in his position to say? True, not every denial is false, but with almost every terrorist suspect who had been to Yemen directly fingering the man, it's pretty hard to take the denials seriously, don't you think? As for making a pro forma indictment and offer to come in from out of the cold, let's get serious, OK?Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-38831005232860406862012-02-02T03:22:24.172-08:002012-02-02T03:22:24.172-08:00"But to really change the name of the game in..."But to really change the name of the game in space you need a cost reduction of at least an order of magnitude, arguably two orders of magnitude. Which is a whole 'nother matter, and not what you get from doing the same basic stuff in a somewhat more streamlined way." <br /><br /><br /><br />In addition to propellants hundreds of times more potent and materials super-strong and super-light that can make very powerful, large and light rockets that can haul up thousands of tons of payload into orbit. Oh, and they have to be cheap too, with any nation being capable of fielding them. <br /><br />That's how I see it anyway- the plausible midfuture will be almost run before we see serious efforts at large payloads in space, if at all....Geoffrey S Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7494544263897150929.post-18420915950429907462012-02-01T21:34:56.620-08:002012-02-01T21:34:56.620-08:00If the market is cost+, I'll be heretical and ...If the market is cost+, I'll be heretical and suggest things could well be cheaper if the government did them directly, without the + for profit. The virtue of private enterprise comes from competition, not simply from being private. If there's not enough market to compete in...<br /><br />C-17 vs. jetliners: is the cost due to much more than how many C-17s were made vs. how many jetliners? Economies of scale and all.Damien Sullivanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13321329197063620556noreply@blogger.com